Miami -13.5 vs Duke: The Market Says 81 Percent, the Numbers Argue
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Miami Hurricanes -13.5 (moneyline -550)
- Market probability (margin removed): Miami Hurricanes 81%, Duke Blue Devils 19%
- Line since opening: Miami Hurricanes -13.5 → -13.5 · Total 53.5 → 54.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Miami Hurricanes -550 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Duke Blue Devils +425 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
Spread
- Miami Hurricanes -13.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Duke Blue Devils +13.5 (-106) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 54.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -108 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Miami hosts Duke Saturday with the market handing the Hurricanes a -13.5 spread and a -550 moneyline. Strip out the vig and the market probability sits at Miami 81%, Duke 19%. That's a heavy number for a team riding a one-game losing streak into a conference matchup against an opponent on a three-game win streak.
The case for Miami starts with scoring: 45.0 points per game and just 19.2 allowed, plus a perfect 4-0 at home. The Hurricanes are 8-1 overall and 3-0 on the moneyline. But the spread tells a different story. Miami is 0-3 against the number this season, a 0% cover rate. The market keeps pricing the Hurricanes at their ceiling and they keep landing short of it.
Duke's argument is the exact inverse. The Blue Devils are 7-2, 3-1 on the road, and 3-1 ATS for a 75% cover rate. They allow just 13.0 points per game, the stingiest figure in this matchup, and they've won three straight. Their +425 moneyline at BetUS is the best price on the board for anyone who thinks the 81% is too rich.
The number hasn't budged: Miami opened -13.5 and sits at -13.5 everywhere. The total moved from 53.5 to 54.5, toward the over. Best prices: Miami -13.5 at -110 with BetAnything, Duke +13.5 at -106 with BetOnline.ag. On the total, over 54.5 is -110 at BetAnything, under is -108 at Bovada. Miami's moneyline is -550 at BetAnything; Duke's is +425 at BetUS.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand down. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 13, 12:36 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes: FAQ
Who is favored in Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes?+
Miami Hurricanes: -13.5 on the spread and -550 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 81%.
What are the best odds for Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes?+
When this analysis was written: Miami Hurricanes -550 at BetAnything and Duke Blue Devils +425 at BetUS on the moneyline; Miami Hurricanes -13.5 (-110) at BetAnything and Duke Blue Devils +13.5 (-106) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -108 at Bovada on the total of 54.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Miami Hurricanes -13.5 and was -13.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 53.5 and was 54.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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