Jacksonville State 24, Western Kentucky 34: the favorite falls outright
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.5 (moneyline -292)
- Market probability (margin removed): Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 28%, Jacksonville State Gamecocks 72%
- Line since opening: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.5 → -7.5 · Total 52.5 → 54
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +245 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks -290 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +7.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.5 (-103) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 54
- Over -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Final: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 24, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34
Against the closing line: Jacksonville State Gamecocks lost and did not cover -7.5 · Total 58, over 54
Game Recap
Jacksonville State 24, Western Kentucky 34. The Gamecocks came in as a -7.5 favorite with a 72% win probability, but the Hilltoppers flipped the script. Western Kentucky's defense, which had been allowing 19.2 points per game, held Jacksonville State to 24, while the Hilltoppers' offense found holes in a Gamecocks defense that had been stingy. The total sailed over 54, landing at 58, as both teams moved the ball better than expected. Against the numbers: Jacksonville State, the favorite, lost outright and did not cover -7.5; the total went over 54.
Pre-Game Analysis
Jacksonville State rolls into Western Kentucky as a -7.5 favorite, priced at -292 on the moneyline. The market gives the Gamecocks a 72% chance to win, margin removed. That's a big number for a road team in conference play, and it's the reason this game is on the board with a total that's already moved.
Jacksonville State has the résumé. The Gamecocks are 7-2 and riding a 6-game win streak. They score 29.1 PPG and allow just 19.2, a scoring margin that explains why the market respects them. They're also 4-0 on the moneyline and 2-1-1 against the spread, a 67% cover rate. The case is simple: a hot team with a defense that keeps games in hand.
Western Kentucky is 3-6 and has lost two straight, but the Hilltoppers are 2-1 at home. They score 23.6 PPG and allow 33.3, which is the number that jumps off the page. The case for the home side is the venue and the price. Getting +7.5 with a team that's been competitive at home is the argument, and the market has started to notice.
The spread hasn't budged from -7.5, but the total has climbed from 52.5 to 54. The moneyline moved from +250 to +241 on Western Kentucky, a sign of sharp interest on the home side. Best prices: Western Kentucky +245 at Everygame, Jacksonville State -290 at BetAnything. On the spread, Western Kentucky +7.5 (-110) at BetAnything, Jacksonville State -7.5 (-103) at Bovada. Total 54: over -105 at BetOnline.ag, under -110 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 2:50 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: FAQ
Who is favored in Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?+
Jacksonville State Gamecocks: -7.5 on the spread and -292 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 72%.
What are the best odds for Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?+
When this analysis was written: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +245 at Everygame and Jacksonville State Gamecocks -290 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +7.5 (-110) at BetAnything and Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.5 (-103) at Bovada on the spread; Over -105 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 54. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.5 and was -7.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 52.5 and was 54.
Does GODDS have a pick for Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 24, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34.
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