Georgia 48, Missouri 21: the favorite covers at -16.5
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Georgia Bulldogs -16.5 (moneyline -800)
- Market probability (margin removed): Georgia Bulldogs 85%, Missouri Tigers 15%
- Line since opening: Georgia Bulldogs -14.5 → -16.5 · Total 47 → 48.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Georgia Bulldogs -750 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Missouri Tigers +561 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Spread
- Georgia Bulldogs -16.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Missouri Tigers +16.5 (-108) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 48.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -108 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Final: Missouri Tigers 21, Georgia Bulldogs 48
Against the closing line: Georgia Bulldogs won and covered -16.5 · Total 69, over 48.5
Game Recap
Georgia Bulldogs 48, Missouri Tigers 21. The Bulldogs left no doubt, turning a 16.5-point spread into a statement. Missouri entered with a perfect 3-0-0 mark against the spread and a defense allowing just 20.1 points per game, but Georgia's offense shredded that résumé. The market had Georgia at -800 on the moneyline, an 85% implied probability, and the Bulldogs played like a team that knew it. Missouri's road struggles (2-2 away from home) showed up early and often. Against the numbers: Georgia covered -16.5 with room to spare, and the total of 69 sailed over 48.5. The Tigers' perfect ATS run is history, and the Bulldogs sent a message to the rest of the conference.
Pre-Game Analysis
Georgia is 8-1 and the market has this one priced like a mismatch. The Bulldogs are -16.5, -800 on the moneyline, and the market probability with the margin removed sits at 85% Georgia, 15% Missouri. That's the number to beat, not the number to trust.
Missouri's case starts with the only perfect record in this matchup: 3-0-0 against the spread. The Tigers are 6-3, 2-2 on the road, and they've covered every game the market has asked them to. They allow 20.1 points per game, and they've done it while the market keeps underestimating them. A 16.5-point cushion is the biggest number they've been handed all year, and they've answered every smaller one.
Georgia's case is the profile of a team that doesn't leave games close. The Bulldogs score 41.1 and allow 14.0, they're 5-1 at home, and their last ten reads W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W. They're 4-2-0 against the spread and 5-1 on the moneyline. The two-game win streak comes with a defense that has kept opponents at 14.0 per game, and the market has moved toward them all week for a reason.
The line opened at Georgia -14.5 and sits at -16.5. The total opened at 47 and sits at 48.5, with money on the over. The moneyline went from -650 to -800. Best prices: Georgia -750 at Everygame, Missouri +561 at BetOnline.ag. Spread: Georgia -16.5 (-110) at BetAnything, Missouri +16.5 (-108) at Bovada. Total 48.5: Over -110 at BetAnything, Under -108 at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 2:50 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs: FAQ
Who is favored in Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?+
Georgia Bulldogs: -16.5 on the spread and -800 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 85%.
What are the best odds for Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?+
When this analysis was written: Georgia Bulldogs -750 at Everygame and Missouri Tigers +561 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; Georgia Bulldogs -16.5 (-110) at BetAnything and Missouri Tigers +16.5 (-108) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -108 at Bovada on the total of 48.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Georgia Bulldogs -14.5 and was -16.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 47 and was 48.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Missouri Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Missouri Tigers 21, Georgia Bulldogs 48.
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