Notre Dame -30.5 at Navy: The Market Says Blowout, the Number Says Otherwise
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -30.5 (moneyline -8697)
- Market probability (margin removed): Navy Midshipmen 6%, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 94%
- Line since opening: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 → -30.5 · Total 54 → 56.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Navy Midshipmen +1800 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7692 at MyBookie.agBet at MyBookie.ag →
Spread
- Navy Midshipmen +30.5 (-108) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish -30.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 56.5
- Over -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Notre Dame at Navy is a pricing puzzle. The market makes the Fighting Irish a -30.5 favorite with a -8697 moneyline, and after removing the margin, Navy's win probability sits at just 6%. That's the market's number, not a recommendation. The question is whether the gap between these teams is really that wide.
Notre Dame's case is simple: 41.1 PPG scored, 13.4 allowed, a 6-1 record and a 2-0 moneyline mark. The Irish have won six of their last nine and are coming off a loss, a spot that usually sharpens a favorite. The counterweight is the spread: Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS, so the market has been ahead of this team all season.
Navy's case is situational. The Midshipmen are 2-1 at home, score 29.7 PPG and have covered in 1 of 2 ATS decisions. They've lost two straight and five of their last six, but the option offense shortens games and eats clock, which is exactly how a 30.5-point number gets tested. Navy's 29.1 points allowed per game is the soft spot.
The line has moved toward Notre Dame, from -29.5 to -30.5, and the total has climbed from 54 to 56.5. Best prices: Navy +30.5 (-108) at Bovada, Notre Dame -30.5 (-110) at BetAnything. On the moneyline, Navy is +1800 at BetOnline.ag and Notre Dame is -7692 at MyBookie.ag. Over 56.5 is -105 at BetOnline.ag; under 56.5 is -110 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen: FAQ
Who is favored in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen?+
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -30.5 on the spread and -8697 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 94%.
What are the best odds for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen?+
When this analysis was written: Navy Midshipmen +1800 at BetOnline.ag and Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7692 at MyBookie.ag on the moneyline; Navy Midshipmen +30.5 (-108) at Bovada and Notre Dame Fighting Irish -30.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -105 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 56.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Notre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 and was -30.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 54 and was 56.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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