Northwestern -16 vs Rutgers: The Market Says 85%, the Line Says Watch
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Northwestern Wildcats -16 (moneyline -750)
- Market probability (margin removed): Northwestern Wildcats 85%, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 15%
- Line since opening: Northwestern Wildcats -16 → -16 · Total 58 → 59
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Northwestern Wildcats -700 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights +550 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Northwestern Wildcats -16 (-109) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 59
- Over -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Northwestern is 5-1, 4-0 at home, and riding a three-game win streak into Saturday. The market prices the Wildcats at -16 with an 85% implied probability, margin removed. Rutgers is 2-4 and 1-1 on the road. That's the gap bettors are staring at.
The case for Northwestern starts with scoring margin: 33.5 points per game against 17.0 allowed. The Wildcats have covered in three of four ATS decisions and won three of four moneyline decisions. Their last ten games read W-W-L-W-W-W-W-W-L-W, and they haven't lost at home. The defense allowing 17.0 per game is the number that makes -16 live.
The case for Rutgers is simpler: the Scarlet Knights score 31.2 per game. They're on a one-game win streak and have already won once on the road. Their last seven games are L-L-L-W-L-W-L, so the form is uneven, but 31.2 points is enough to keep a 16-point number from being automatic. The moneyline record is 0-1 and the ATS record is 0-1, so the market hasn't been kind, but the scoring output is real.
The line hasn't moved off -16 since opening. The total has ticked from 58 to 59, toward the over. The moneyline moved from -775 to -750, which points to sharp money on Rutgers. Best prices: Northwestern -700 at BetUS, Rutgers +550 at BetAnything. On the spread, Northwestern -16 (-109) at BetOnline.ag, Rutgers +16 (-110) at BetAnything. On the total of 59, over -110 and under -110 both at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in its model, so there's no recommendation. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 23, 2:57 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Northwestern Wildcats: FAQ
Who is favored in Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Northwestern Wildcats?+
Northwestern Wildcats: -16 on the spread and -750 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 85%.
What are the best odds for Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Northwestern Wildcats?+
When this analysis was written: Northwestern Wildcats -700 at BetUS and Rutgers Scarlet Knights +550 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Northwestern Wildcats -16 (-109) at BetOnline.ag and Rutgers Scarlet Knights +16 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at Bovada and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 59. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Northwestern Wildcats -16 and was -16 when this analysis was written; the total opened 58 and was 59.
Does GODDS have a pick for Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Northwestern Wildcats?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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