Air Force -14 against San Jose State, and the line keeps climbing.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Air Force Falcons -14 (moneyline -602)
- Market probability (margin removed): Air Force Falcons 82%, San Jose State Spartans 18%
- Line since opening: Air Force Falcons -11.5 → -14 · Total 47.5 → 50.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Air Force Falcons -575 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
- San Jose State Spartans +450 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Air Force Falcons -14 (-105) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- San Jose State Spartans +14 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 50.5
- Over -108 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Air Force hosts San Jose State Saturday with the market firmly in the Falcons' corner. The spread sits at -14 after opening at -11.5, and the moneyline has been bet from -450 to -602. The market probability, margin removed, is 82% Air Force, 18% San Jose State. That's the pricing. It's not a pick.
Air Force's case is a 7-2 record, a 4-1 mark at home, and a two-game win streak. The Falcons score 28.7 points per game and allow 21.4. They've been reliable on the moneyline at 3-1, and the market has moved toward them at every turn. The number climbing from -11.5 to -14 says bettors see the gap widening, not closing.
San Jose State's case is a 5-5 record with a 3-2 road mark and a win in its last outing. The Spartans allow just 22.0 points per game, which is close to Air Force's scoring average. They've covered in 2 of 3 ATS decisions this season, a 67% clip. If the total stays near 50.5, a team allowing 22 points per game has a path to keep this inside two touchdowns.
The line movement is the story. The spread went from -11.5 to -14, the total from 47.5 to 50.5, and the moneyline from -450 to -602. The best moneyline price on Air Force is -575 at BetUS; San Jose State is +450 at BetAnything. On the spread, Air Force -14 (-105) at Everygame and San Jose State +14 (-105) at Bovada are the best available. The total of 50.5 is Over -108 at Bovada and Under -110 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand you. The best number is there for whatever your read is.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 5:16 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons: FAQ
Who is favored in San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?+
Air Force Falcons: -14 on the spread and -602 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 82%.
What are the best odds for San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?+
When this analysis was written: Air Force Falcons -575 at BetUS and San Jose State Spartans +450 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Air Force Falcons -14 (-105) at Everygame and San Jose State Spartans +14 (-105) at Bovada on the spread; Over -108 at Bovada and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 50.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Air Force Falcons -11.5 and was -14 when this analysis was written; the total opened 47.5 and was 50.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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