South Florida 17, East Carolina 20: the favorite covers at -1
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: East Carolina Pirates -1 (moneyline -113)
- Market probability (margin removed): East Carolina Pirates 51%, South Florida Bulls 49%
- Line since opening: East Carolina Pirates -1.5 → -1 · Total 40.5 → 39
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- East Carolina Pirates -103 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- South Florida Bulls -105 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- East Carolina Pirates -1 (-108) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- South Florida Bulls +1 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 39
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: South Florida Bulls 17, East Carolina Pirates 20
Against the closing line: East Carolina Pirates won and covered -1 · Total 37, under 39.5
Game Recap
South Florida 17, East Carolina 20. The Pirates closed as -1 favorites with the moneyline at -115, and the market's 51/49 split said this was a coin flip. It played out that way. The total was bet down from 40.5 to 39.5 before kickoff, and the teams combined for 37, so the under cashed. East Carolina won outright and covered the short number. Against the numbers, the favorite did its job: East Carolina covered -1, and the total went under 39.5.
Pre-Game Analysis
East Carolina hosts South Florida on Friday with a number that tells you everything about how the market sees this one. The Pirates are favored by -1 and priced at -113 on the moneyline, but when you strip out the margin, the market probability sits at East Carolina 51%, South Florida 49%. That's a coin flip with a jersey attached. The total has been bet down from 40.5 to 39, so the market expects a tight, low-scoring game.
The case for East Carolina starts with home field. The Pirates are 3-1 at home and riding a 1-game win streak. They're allowing 24.1 points per game while scoring 24.0, so they're not asking their offense to win shootouts. They've covered in 2 of 3 games with an ATS record of 2-1-0, and they've been the healthier side against the number at home.
The case for South Florida is the defense. The Bulls are 6-2 and giving up just 14.5 points per game while scoring 27.0. They've won 2 straight and are 2-1 on the road. Their ATS record is 1-0-0, a perfect cover rate, and their moneyline record is 1-0. When you allow 14.5 per game, you keep every game within one score, which is exactly what a -1 spread demands.
The line has moved. The spread opened at East Carolina -1.5 and is now -1. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39. The moneyline moved from -120 to -113 on East Carolina, which is sharp money on South Florida. Best prices: East Carolina ML -103 at BetOnline.ag, South Florida ML -105 at Everygame. Spread: East Carolina -1 (-108) at Bovada, South Florida +1 (-110) at BetAnything. Total: Over -110 at BetAnything, Under -105 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play. If you have a read, the best numbers are above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 6, 3:46 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates: FAQ
Who is favored in South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates?+
East Carolina Pirates: -1 on the spread and -113 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 51%.
What are the best odds for South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates?+
When this analysis was written: East Carolina Pirates -103 at BetOnline.ag and South Florida Bulls -105 at Everygame on the moneyline; East Carolina Pirates -1 (-108) at Bovada and South Florida Bulls +1 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -105 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 39. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened East Carolina Pirates -1.5 and was -1 when this analysis was written; the total opened 40.5 and was 39.
Does GODDS have a pick for South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
South Florida Bulls 17, East Carolina Pirates 20.
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