Temple +5 at Toledo. The line is moving and I'm not waiting.

The God of Odds likes Temple Owls +5 at -105 against Toledo, and Bovada is the place to hammer it.

Toledo opened as a 6-point favorite. The market has since pushed this thing down to -5, and the moneyline has come with it, from -225 to -200. That's sharp money on the Owls, and it's happening for a reason.

Temple is 1-1 on the year and scoring 23.5 points per game while allowing just 20.5. That's a team playing real football on both sides of the ball, not a program showing up to collect a check. The Owls opened with a win before dropping their second game, so this is a group that knows how to finish a Saturday. They're also 0-0 on the road, which means there's no road tape for Toledo's staff to lean on and no bad habits to correct.

Toledo sits at 1-1 and is putting up 41.5 points per game while giving up 20.0. That scoring number is loud. But the Rockets are 1-0 at home, and the market still walked this line down a full point. When a home team with that kind of scoring average can't hold a six, the number is telling you something.

The total has dropped from 51 to 48.5, which tells you the books expect fewer points than the public does. Fewer points means fewer possessions, and fewer possessions means a five-point cushion gets more valuable by the snap. That's the math working for Temple.

Grab the +5 at -105 on Bovada. Every other book is sitting at -110 or worse on this number. MyBookie, BetUS, BetAnything, Everygame, and BetOnline all have Temple at -110, and Bovada is the only shop giving you the half-point discount. On a line this tight, five cents of juice is the difference between a good bet and a great one.

Early-season samples are small, and I'm treating this as a moderate-confidence play because of it. But the direction is clear. The line moved, the moneyline moved, and Temple is the side the sharps are on. Owls +5 at Bovada.