Oregon State -5.5 against Texas State, and the line keeps sliding.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Oregon State Beavers -5.5 (moneyline -210)
- Market probability (margin removed): Oregon State Beavers 65%, Texas State Bobcats 35%
- Line since opening: Oregon State Beavers -6.5 → -5.5 · Total 70 → 71.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Oregon State Beavers -200 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Texas State Bobcats +185 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Oregon State Beavers -5.5 (-105) at EverygameBet at Everygame →
- Texas State Bobcats +5.5 (-108) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Total 71.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Oregon State hosts Texas State on Saturday with a 5-3 record and a 3-1 mark at home, priced as a -5.5 favorite with a -210 moneyline. The market gives the Beavers a 65% chance with the margin removed, so it's not a game that's been priced into a corner. That's the whole point of this one: the number is live, the total is live, and the market has been moving.
Oregon State's case is straightforward. The Beavers score 40.1 points per game and allow 25.0, they've won seven of their last ten, and they're 2-0 on the moneyline and 2-0 on the over/under this season. Their one loss in the last ten came in the most recent game, which is why the price has softened. A team scoring 40 a game at home is a real problem for a defense allowing 32.
Texas State's case is the road record and the scoring. The Bobcats put up 38.1 points per game and allow 32.0, and their last ten reads L-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-L-W. They're 0-3 on the road, which is the number that cuts against them, but they're 2-0 on the over/under and 1-1 against the spread. The Bobcats have the offense to stay in a game with a 71.5 total, and the market has noticed.
The line has moved toward Texas State since opening: the spread went from -6.5 to -5.5, the moneyline from -260 to -210, and the total from 70 to 71.5. Best prices: Oregon State -200 at BetOnline.ag, Texas State +185 at Bovada. On the spread, Oregon State -5.5 (-105) at Everygame, Texas State +5.5 (-108) at Bovada. On the total, over 71.5 and under 71.5 both -110 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 7, 7:26 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers: FAQ
Who is favored in Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers?+
Oregon State Beavers: -5.5 on the spread and -210 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 65%.
What are the best odds for Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers?+
When this analysis was written: Oregon State Beavers -200 at BetOnline.ag and Texas State Bobcats +185 at Bovada on the moneyline; Oregon State Beavers -5.5 (-105) at Everygame and Texas State Bobcats +5.5 (-108) at Bovada on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 71.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Oregon State Beavers -6.5 and was -5.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 70 and was 71.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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