Toledo -25 at Sacramento State, and the market's number is clear.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Toledo Rockets -25 (moneyline -2949)
- Market probability (margin removed): Sacramento State Hornets 7%, Toledo Rockets 93%
- Line since opening: Toledo Rockets -26.5 → -25 · Total 53 → 53
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Sacramento State Hornets +1300 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Toledo Rockets -2900 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Sacramento State Hornets +25 (-103) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Toledo Rockets -25 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 53
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Toledo rolls into Sacramento as a -25 favorite, with the moneyline sitting near -2949 and the market giving the Rockets a 93% win probability. Sacramento State gets 7%. That's the price. The question is whether the number or the side is right.
Sacramento State's case starts with the venue and the recent result. The Hornets are 2-3 at home and come in on a 1-game win streak after a W in their last outing. They've been outscored badly this season, scoring 17.0 PPG while allowing 30.3, but the home crowd and the quick turnaround give them something to build on. The data doesn't offer much else: 0-3 ATS, 0-3 moneyline, and a 1-2 O/U mark.
Toledo's case is straightforward. The Rockets are 6-2, 2-1 on the road, and riding a 2-game win streak. They score 37.4 PPG and allow 25.4, a scoring margin that explains the big number. Their last 10 shows eight wins in ten, and they're 3-0 on the moneyline this season. The spread hasn't been kind (1-2 ATS), but the total has: 3-0 O/U.
The line opened at Toledo -26.5 and has moved to -25, a full point and a half toward Sacramento State. The total sits at 53 with no significant movement. Sharp money has shown on Toledo's moneyline, pushing Sacramento State from +1248 to +1262. Best prices: Sacramento State +1300 at Bovada; Toledo -2900 at BetAnything. On the spread, Sacramento State +25 (-103) at Bovada; Toledo -25 (-110) at BetAnything. Total 53: over -110 and under -110, both at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 3, 12:39 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Toledo Rockets vs Sacramento State Hornets: FAQ
Who is favored in Toledo Rockets vs Sacramento State Hornets?+
Toledo Rockets: -25 on the spread and -2949 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 93%.
What are the best odds for Toledo Rockets vs Sacramento State Hornets?+
When this analysis was written: Sacramento State Hornets +1300 at Bovada and Toledo Rockets -2900 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Sacramento State Hornets +25 (-103) at Bovada and Toledo Rockets -25 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 53. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Toledo Rockets -26.5 and was -25 when this analysis was written; the total opened 53 and was 53.
Does GODDS have a pick for Toledo Rockets vs Sacramento State Hornets?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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