USC 13, Indiana 27: the favorite covers at -9 and the under cashes
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Indiana Hoosiers -9 (moneyline -322)
- Market probability (margin removed): Indiana Hoosiers 73%, USC Trojans 27%
- Line since opening: Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 → -9 · Total 50.5 → 51.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Indiana Hoosiers -305 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- USC Trojans +270 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Indiana Hoosiers -9 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- USC Trojans +9 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 51.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: USC Trojans 13, Indiana Hoosiers 27
Against the closing line: Indiana Hoosiers won and covered -9 · Total 40, under 51.5
Game Recap
USC Trojans 13, Indiana Hoosiers 27. Indiana's defense, allowing just 12.4 points per game, smothered USC all afternoon and turned a 9-point spread into a statement. The Hoosiers' 8-1 record and 5-1 home mark held up, while the Trojans never found an answer for a unit that's been suffocating all season. Against the numbers: Indiana, the favorite, won outright and covered -9, and the total of 40 stayed well under 51.5.
Pre-Game Analysis
Indiana hosts USC on Saturday with the market pricing the Hoosiers as a 9-point favorite and a -322 moneyline. Strip out the margin and the market gives Indiana a 73% chance to win. That's a number worth respecting, but it's also a number that leaves room for the other side. This is a game where the data cuts both ways, and the market has already moved.
The case for Indiana starts with a defense allowing 12.4 points per game and a 8-1 record with a 5-1 mark at home. The Hoosiers are on a two-game win streak and have won seven of their last eight. But the betting data tells a different story: Indiana is 0-3-1 against the spread this season. The market has been ahead of this team all year, and backers have paid for it.
The case for USC is an offense scoring 32.4 points per game with a 2-1 road record and a 7-2 mark overall. The Trojans have won three of four and have the firepower to trade points. The problem is a defense allowing 24.2 points per game, nearly double Indiana's number. USC has to win a shootout or slow down a team that hasn't been slowed often.
The line opened at Indiana -7.5 and sits at -9. The moneyline moved from -295 to -322. The total climbed from 50.5 to 51.5. Best prices: Indiana -305 at BetOnline.ag, USC +270 at Bovada, both sides of the spread at BetAnything (-110), and the total at 51.5 with the over -110 at BetAnything and the under -105 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 2:50 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers: FAQ
Who is favored in USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?+
Indiana Hoosiers: -9 on the spread and -322 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 73%.
What are the best odds for USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?+
When this analysis was written: Indiana Hoosiers -305 at BetOnline.ag and USC Trojans +270 at Bovada on the moneyline; Indiana Hoosiers -9 (-110) at BetAnything and USC Trojans +9 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -105 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 51.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 and was -9 when this analysis was written; the total opened 50.5 and was 51.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
USC Trojans 13, Indiana Hoosiers 27.
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