SMU -6.5 against Virginia Tech, and the line keeps climbing.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: SMU Mustangs -6.5 (moneyline -230)
- Market probability (margin removed): SMU Mustangs 67%, Virginia Tech Hokies 33%
- Line since opening: SMU Mustangs -6 → -6.5 · Total 55 → 56.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- SMU Mustangs -220 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Virginia Tech Hokies +200 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
Spread
- SMU Mustangs -6.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Virginia Tech Hokies +6.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 56.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
SMU hosts Virginia Tech Friday night with the Mustangs priced as a -6.5 favorite and -230 on the moneyline. The market gives SMU a 67% chance with the margin removed. That's a real favorite, but not a runaway one, and the number has been moving all week.
The case for SMU starts at home, where the Mustangs are 5-0. They score 35.3 points per game and allow 22.3, and they've won seven of their last ten. The moneyline has ticked from -225 to -230, and the spread has moved from -6 to -6.5, so the market is leaning toward the home side. The counterweight: SMU is 1-3-1 against the spread this season, a 25% cover rate that says they win games without covering numbers like this one.
The case for Virginia Tech is a road team that's been better away from home than its record suggests. The Hokies are 3-1 on the road, scoring 35.0 per game and allowing just 20.5, and they arrive on a two-game win streak. Their ATS mark is 1-2, but the scoring margin profile is the tightest part of this matchup. A team allowing 20.5 per game doesn't get blown out often, and +6.5 asks SMU to win by a full touchdown.
The total opened at 55 and has moved to 56.5, so the market expects points. Best prices: SMU moneyline -220 at BetOnline.ag, Virginia Tech moneyline +200 at BetUS. On the spread, both sides are -110 at BetAnything for -6.5 and +6.5. The total is 56.5, with the over and under both -110 at BetAnything. Bovada is the outlier at -6 and a 56 total, which matters if you're shopping numbers.
GODDS has no pick on this game. Neither side reaches the 70% threshold in the model. Whatever your read is, the best price is on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 5, 12:56 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs SMU Mustangs: FAQ
Who is favored in Virginia Tech Hokies vs SMU Mustangs?+
SMU Mustangs: -6.5 on the spread and -230 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 67%.
What are the best odds for Virginia Tech Hokies vs SMU Mustangs?+
When this analysis was written: SMU Mustangs -220 at BetOnline.ag and Virginia Tech Hokies +200 at BetUS on the moneyline; SMU Mustangs -6.5 (-110) at BetAnything and Virginia Tech Hokies +6.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 56.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened SMU Mustangs -6 and was -6.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 55 and was 56.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Virginia Tech Hokies vs SMU Mustangs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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