SMU -1 against Wake Forest, and the line keeps climbing.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: SMU Mustangs -1 (moneyline -115)
- Market probability (margin removed): SMU Mustangs 51%, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 49%
- Line since opening: SMU Mustangs +2.5 → -1 · Total 61 → 60
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- SMU Mustangs -112 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons +100 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- SMU Mustangs -1 (-108) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1 (-107) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Total 60
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
SMU hosts Wake Forest on Saturday with the market split down the middle. The Mustangs are -1, moneyline -115, and the market probability after removing the margin is SMU 51%, Wake Forest 49%. That's a coin flip with a price tag, and the number has been moving all week.
Wake Forest brings the strongest résumé in this matchup. The Demon Deacons are 8-1, 4-0 on the road, riding a 6-game win streak, and scoring 43.3 points per game while allowing just 15.9. They've covered the spread in all 6 of their ATS decisions, a 100% cover rate. For anyone backing the road side, that's the case: an undefeated away team with a 6-game streak and a defense giving up fewer than 16 points a game.
SMU's argument is simple: the Mustangs are 7-2, 6-0 at home, scoring 37.0 and allowing 22.9. They've won 8 of their last 10 and they're on a 1-game win streak. The ATS record is 2-3-1, a 40% cover rate, so the market has been ahead of them. But the home field is real, and the line has moved toward SMU all week.
The number tells the story. The spread opened at SMU +2.5 and is now -1, a full 3.5-point swing toward the Mustangs. The total dropped from 61 to 60. The moneyline moved from +100 to -115, sharp money on SMU. Best prices: SMU moneyline -112 at Bovada, Wake Forest +100 at BetAnything. Spread: SMU -1 (-108) at Bovada, Wake Forest +1 (-107) at BetOnline.ag. Total 60: Over -110 at BetAnything, Under -105 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.
BetAnything
35% Sports Free Play up to $105
Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 13, 6:29 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs: FAQ
Who is favored in Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs?+
SMU Mustangs: -1 on the spread and -115 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 51%.
What are the best odds for Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs?+
When this analysis was written: SMU Mustangs -112 at Bovada and Wake Forest Demon Deacons +100 at BetAnything on the moneyline; SMU Mustangs -1 (-108) at Bovada and Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1 (-107) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -105 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 60. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened SMU Mustangs +2.5 and was -1 when this analysis was written; the total opened 61 and was 60.
Does GODDS have a pick for Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
BetAnything
35% Sports Free Play up to $105
More NCAAF Picks
Recent Results
California Golden Bears @ SMU Mustangs
SMU Mustangs spread -19
Rice Owls @ Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic Owls spread -8
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Cincinnati Bearcats
Texas Tech Red Raiders spread -11
Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines
Indiana Hoosiers spread -7
NC State Wolfpack @ Stanford Cardinal
NC State Wolfpack spread -7
Air Force Falcons @ Wyoming Cowboys
Air Force Falcons spread -4.5
Army Black Knights @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread -1.5
Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers spread -1.5
UMass Minutemen @ UConn Huskies
UMass Minutemen spread +14.5
East Carolina Pirates @ Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers spread -10