Cowboys -4.5 at Indy, and the market keeps pushing

The Dallas Cowboys are the story in Indianapolis, and the market has already moved on them. The Cowboys are 3-5 and just lost a game, but the price says they're the better team: Dallas is -4.5 with a moneyline of -222, and the market gives them a 66% chance to win with the margin removed. The Colts are 2-6, riding a four-game losing streak, and priced at +185 on the moneyline. That's the gap bettors are staring at.

Indy's best case is simple: the number has gotten fat. The Colts are 4-4 against the spread and 5-3 on the over/under, so they've been more competitive than their record suggests. They're 1-2 at home, but they score 20.1 points per game and the defense allows 27.8. The case for the Colts is that a 2-6 team catching 4.5 at home has already been written off, and the spread has moved from +1.5 to +4.5, which means the value has shifted toward Indy even if the results haven't.

Dallas's case is the offense. The Cowboys average 27.4 points per game and allow 26.6, and they're 2-2 on the road. The moneyline has moved from +171 to +185 on the Colts, which means sharp money is on Dallas. The Cowboys are 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 on the over/under, so they haven't been a reliable bet either way, but the market sees them as the clearly better team. The injuries are a concern: Dallas has four players out or doubtful, including KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Thompson, and five more questionable. Indy has three out or doubtful, including Alec Pierce.

The line has moved from Dallas -1.5 to -4.5, and the total has dropped from 52.5 to 51.5. The best price on the Colts moneyline is +190 at Everygame, and the best on Dallas is -220 at Bovada. On the spread, both sides are -110 at BetAnything. On the total, the over is -110 at BetAnything and the under is -108 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.