Colts get 10 in Jacksonville, and the line keeps climbing.

The Jaguars are 4-2 and the Colts are 2-5, and the market has taken that gap and stretched it to the limit. Jacksonville opened -4.5 and now sits -10, with the moneyline at -490 and a market probability of 80% for the home side. That's a big number for a team that just lost its last game.

Jacksonville's case is its scoring margin. The Jaguars score 25.7 points per game and allow 17.3, a differential that's fueled a 3-1 home record. They've won seven of their last ten and their moneyline record is 4-2. The defense has been the anchor, and the market clearly believes the losing streak ends here. The injuries are real, though: safety Antonio Johnson and tackle Anton Harrison are out or doubtful, and Jakobi Meyers is questionable.

Indianapolis is 2-5 but covers at a 57% clip, and that's the counterargument. The Colts have lost three straight, yet they've been the more reliable team against the number. Their problem is scoring: 22.0 points per game against 25.7 allowed. They're also banged up, with receivers Anthony Gould and Alec Pierce out or doubtful, plus corners Justin Walley and Cam Taylor-Britt. The case for the road side is that the number has moved four and a half points past the opener, and the Colts have been the better ATS team.

The total has moved from 49.5 to 46.5, toward the under. Best prices: Jaguars moneyline -475 at BetOnline.ag, Colts +375 at BetAnything. On the spread, Jaguars -10 (-105) at BetAnything, Colts +10 (-108) at Bovada. Total 46.5 is -110 either way at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting.