Colts 10, Vikings 16: the favorite wins but fails to cover -7

The Minnesota Vikings are 5-0 and the market has noticed. Minnesota opened -3 and now sits -6.5 at every book listed, with the moneyline at -280. The market probability, margin removed, is Vikings 71%, Colts 29%. That's a big number for a team scoring 21.8 points per game, and it's the number bettors have to wrestle with.

The case for Minnesota starts with a defense allowing 12.8 points per game and a perfect 5-0 record both straight up and against the spread, 4-1 ATS on the season. The Vikings are 2-0 at home and have won five straight, covering in four of five. The injuries to Jordan Mason, Donovan Jackson and Josh Oliver thin the offense, but the defense is the engine here, and it's why the line keeps climbing.

The case for Indianapolis is that the Colts score 24.0 points per game, more than Minnesota, and the total has crashed from 47.5 to 41.5. That move says the market expects a low-scoring game, which compresses the favorite's margin. The Colts are 4-2 on the over/under and 3-3 ATS, and getting +6.5 with a team that averages 24 points is the counterargument to the Vikings' defensive numbers. The injuries to Sauce Gardner, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Anthony Gould are real, but the Colts have moved the ball.

The line has moved toward Minnesota on the spread and the moneyline, from -270 to -280, while the total has dropped six points. Best prices: Vikings -280 at BetAnything on the moneyline, Colts +235 at BetUS; Vikings -6.5 (-104) at BetOnline.ag, Colts +6.5 (-110) at BetAnything; over 41.5 at -110 and under 41.5 at -110, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play. If you have a read, the best number is out there.