Jaguars -10.5 at Titans: The Line Has Already Spoken

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-2 and the Tennessee Titans are 1-7, and the market has priced that gap all the way to Jacksonville -10.5. The moneyline sits at -575 on the Jaguars, +440 on the Titans, and with the margin removed the market gives Tennessee just an 18% chance. That's the number to beat if you're backing the home dog.

The case for Jacksonville is a scoring gap that's hard to ignore. The Jaguars put up 28.6 points per game and allow just 15.1, a differential of more than two touchdowns. They've won two straight, sit 2-1 on the road, and are 5-3 against the spread. The market has moved with them, not against them, and the Titans have lost eight of nine with an 0-4 home record.

The case for Tennessee starts with the number itself. The Titans are 4-4 against the spread, a .500 cover rate on a team that's 1-7 straight up. They've scored 18.0 per game and allowed 24.9, which is bad but not 10.5-points bad. The injury report is the real problem: Tommy Townsend, Peter Skoronski, Cody Barton, Anthony Hill Jr., Carnell Tate and James Williams Sr. are all out or doubtful, and Tyjae Spears is questionable.

The line opened at Jacksonville -2.5 and has climbed to -10.5, an eight-point move toward the road favorite, with sharp money on the Jaguars pushing the moneyline from +410 to +433 on Tennessee. The total moved from 45.5 to 46.5. Best prices: Titans +440 at Everygame, Jaguars -575 at BetAnything. On the spread, Titans +10.5 (-107) at BetOnline.ag, Jaguars -10.5 (-110) at BetAnything. Over 46.5 (-105) at Bovada, under -110 at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side clears 70% in the model, so there's no official play. Whatever your read is, the best number is listed above.