Stephen Thompson at -145 over Charlie Radtke. The market sees both sides.

Stephen Thompson and Charlie Radtke meet at a neutral venue on Saturday, November 14, 2026, and the market has installed Thompson as the favorite at -145. The margin-removed probability sits at 57% Thompson, 43% Radtke, a split that says this is closer than the headline number suggests. Thompson brings a 17-9-1 record into the cage; Radtke counters with 12-5-0. Neither fighter owns a lopsided edge on paper, and the odds reflect that tension.

The case for Thompson starts with his experience. 17 wins and 25 professional fights give him a depth of rounds Radtke hasn't matched. He's been in the cage with high-level competition, and that seasoning shows in close fights. The line movement backs him too: sharp money has pushed his price from -140 to -145, a small but telling shift toward the veteran.

The case for Radtke is his record. 12-5-0 is a winning mark, and at +125 he's priced as a live underdog. Five losses on his ledger mean he's been tested, and he's still here. The market gives him a 43% chance, which is far from a formality. If Thompson's age or mileage shows up, Radtke's number becomes the story.

The number has moved since opening. Thompson opened -140 and now sits -145 at Bovada and BetAnything, while BetOnline.ag still hangs -140. That's the best price on the favorite. On the other side, Radtke is +120 at BetOnline.ag, +125 at Bovada, and +115 at BetAnything. Bovada offers the best number on the underdog. The movement is modest, but it's real: the market is leaning Thompson's way without fully committing.

GODDS has no pick on this fight. No side reaches the 70% threshold in our model, so we're not forcing a play. If your read is Thompson, -140 at BetOnline.ag is the number. If you're on Radtke, +125 at Bovada is where you want to be.