Steven Asplund +190 vs Vitor Petrino: UFC Moneyline Pick

The God of Odds likes Steven Asplund on the moneyline at +190, and Pinnacle is the place to hammer it. This isn't about blind faith in an underdog. It's about reading the market and finding value where the public narrative misses the point. The line moved our way, and that's a signal you don't ignore.

We're backing the dog here because the price is right. Vitor Petrino opened as a heavy favorite, but the money has come in on the other side. That movement tells a story. It suggests the initial number on Petrino was too high, and sharp bettors are taking advantage. When the line moves against the favorite, it's often a sign to fade the public sentiment and follow the smart money.

This pick is a classic value play. At +190, Asplund doesn't need to win a majority of the time for this bet to be profitable. The market has overcorrected on Petrino's perceived edge, creating an opportunity. We're not saying Asplund is a lock, but the odds offered significantly outweigh his true chances of winning. That's the foundation of a solid bet.

For the best price on this play, head to Pinnacle. They're offering Asplund at +190, which is the top number available across the board. BetOnline.ag and BetAnything have him at +170, while BetUS is at +166 and Bovada at +182. That extra 20 cents of value at Pinnacle adds up. When you're betting an underdog, every point of plus-money matters. Get the best number where it's offered.