Lille 1, AS Monaco 1: the favorite draws at -110
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: AS Monaco (moneyline +105)
- Market probability (margin removed): AS Monaco 47%, Draw 28%, Lille 25%
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- AS Monaco +105 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Draw +250 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Lille +286 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Draw No Bet
- AS Monaco -219 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Lille +176 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: Lille 1, AS Monaco 1
Against the closing line: AS Monaco drew
Game Recap
Lille 1, AS Monaco 1. The draw was the outcome nobody wanted to price, but the market made Monaco the favorite at -110 and the game ended level. Monaco's three-game win streak and 4-2 moneyline record suggested they'd edge it, but Lille matched them on the day. The moneyline moved from +110 to +105, yet the result landed on the 28% draw probability. Against the numbers: Monaco, the favorite, drew. The spread and total didn't matter; the moneyline did, and it went against the close.
Pre-Game Analysis
AS Monaco hosts Lille Sunday with both clubs level on 4-2-1, and the market still makes Monaco the favorite at +105. The margin-removed probabilities: Monaco 47%, draw 28%, Lille 25%. Close enough that the number, not the badge, decides this one.
Monaco's case is the streak. Three straight wins, 1.4 goals per game and 0.9 allowed, and a 4-2 moneyline record. The last 10 reads L-D-W-D-W-W-W-L-T-W, the kind of run that gets priced. The sharp money agrees: the moneyline moved from +110 to +105 on Monaco, and the Draw No Bet price sits at -219 at BetOnline.ag.
Lille's case is the defense. 0.7 goals allowed per game is the stingiest figure in this matchup, and the 6-2 moneyline record is the best either side brings. One win in a row, and the last 10 shows D-W-L-W-W-D-W-T-W-L, a side that doesn't lose often and doesn't give much away. At +286 at BetOnline.ag, the market pays the longest price on the team with the better defensive number.
THE NUMBER: Monaco opened +110 and is now +105 at Bovada, the best price on the favorite. The draw is +250 at BetOnline.ag, the top number on the middle result. Lille is +286 at BetOnline.ag. On Draw No Bet, Monaco is -219 at BetOnline.ag and Lille is +176 at BetOnline.ag. Every market has a best price, and the books don't all agree.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand you. Whatever your read, take the best number for it: Monaco +105 at Bovada, the draw +250 at BetOnline.ag, Lille +286 at BetOnline.ag.
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Odds Comparison
DNB (Draw No Bet): a draw returns the stake. Each book's from its own prices for the team and the draw: the price of the two bets that make it there.
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 24, 9:56 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Lille vs AS Monaco: FAQ
Who is favored in Lille vs AS Monaco?+
AS Monaco: +105 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 47%.
What are the best odds for Lille vs AS Monaco?+
When this analysis was written: AS Monaco +105 at Bovada, Draw +250 at BetOnline.ag and Lille +286 at BetOnline.ag on the moneyline; AS Monaco -219 at BetOnline.ag and Lille +176 at BetOnline.ag on the Draw No Bet. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
Does GODDS have a pick for Lille vs AS Monaco?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Lille 1, AS Monaco 1.
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