Paris FC -125 at Auxerre, and the line keeps climbing.

Auxerre hosts Paris FC on Saturday with the visitors priced as the favorite at -125 and the market giving them a 53% chance after the margin is removed. Auxerre sits at 23% and the draw at 24%, so the books see this as Paris FC's game to lose, not a coin flip. That's the number to beat, and the line has already moved.

Paris FC brings the best argument in the data. They're 5-2-2 on the season, scoring 1.8 goals per game while allowing just 1.1, and their last ten reads W-L-W-L-W-D-W-W-D-L. They've drawn once in a row, but the underlying profile is a team that wins more than it loses and doesn't get blown out. The moneyline record of 4-3 shows they've been priced right more often than not.

Auxerre's case is thinner but real. They're 3-1-5, allowing 2.6 goals per game, and they've lost three straight. Their last ten is L-D-W-L-W-W-L-L-L-L, a slide that explains why the market is sour. But they're at home, and their moneyline record is also 4-3, meaning they've delivered as an underdog before. The price is +335, so the market isn't giving them much respect.

The line opened at +280 for Auxerre and has drifted to +319, with sharp money on Paris FC. The best price on the favorite is -125 at Bovada, while Auxerre backers can get +335 at BetOnline.ag. In Draw No Bet, Paris FC is -288 at BetOnline.ag and Auxerre is +229 at BetOnline.ag. The draw is +310 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game because no side reaches 70% in its model. The market says Paris FC, the data says Paris FC, but the number doesn't clear the bar. If your read is the favorite, -125 at Bovada is the best number. If you see the home side turning it around, +335 at BetOnline.ag is there for the taking.