Athletics +115 at Phillies: Fading the injured favorite with the sharper dog

The God of Odds likes the Athletics on the moneyline at +115 and BetUS is the place to hammer it. Philadelphia is a flawed favorite, and this line is begging to be faded.

The Phillies sit at 17-20 overall and just 10-10 at home. They've been one of the worst covering teams in baseball, posting a brutal 41-270-0 ATS record. That's a 13% cover rate. You don't want to lay juice with a team that consistently fails to deliver.

Meanwhile, the Athletics are 18-18 and 10-10 on the road. They score 4.3 runs per game, nearly identical to the Phillies' 4.0, and both allow 4.8 per game. This is a toss-up on paper, but the market is overrating Philadelphia. The Phillies are dealing with four key injuries: Daniel Robert, Aidan Miller, Keaton Anthony, and Christian McGowan are all out or doubtful. That's a significant chunk of their pitching and infield depth.

Head to head, the Phillies won the last two meetings by a combined 15-4. That's exactly why this line is inflated. The public sees those blowouts and piles on the favorite. But sharp bettors know regression is coming. The Athletics' moneyline record is 95-111, which isn't great, but it's far better than Philadelphia's 137-174 mark.

BetUS is offering the best price on the Athletics at +115. That's a full five cents better than Bovada's +110. Every cent matters when you're backing a dog. Lock in the plus money and fade the banged-up Phillies. The value is on Oakland here.