Cubs +113 in San Diego. The Padres are the trap here.

The God of Odds likes the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline at +113, and BetUS is the place to hammer it. San Diego is the favorite. San Diego is also the side you should be fading.

The Padres sit at 91-71 and 51-30 at home, and the market is pricing them like a lock. It isn't. Their moneyline record is just 32-28, meaning they've been a losing proposition for anyone backing them straight up all season. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 47-23 on the moneyline and 43-38 on the road, and they've won four of the last five meetings between these two clubs, including a 5-4 win and an 8-3 win in late April. That's not noise. That's a team that matches up well and gets paid when it wins.

Chicago averages 5.2 runs per game and allows 4.3. San Diego scores 4.5 and allows 4.2. The Cubs hold the OPS edge at .767 to .718, and they get to face a Padres staff missing Yu Darvish and Matt Waldron. Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA) is a real arm, but he's working without the depth behind him that San Diego has leaned on all year. Chicago's only notable absence is reliever Brandon Birdsell, which doesn't move the needle on a moneyline.

Yes, the Cubs are 3-5 in their last five. That's exactly why the number is +113 instead of -110. The market is overreacting to a short cold stretch and underreacting to a 47-23 moneyline record, a 4-1 head-to-head edge, and a clear OPS advantage. The total has dropped from 7.5 to 7, a signal that runs will be harder to come by, which favors the team with the better lineup and the better price.

Shop the number. BetUS is offering the Cubs at +113, the best available price on the board. BetAnything and BetOnline.ag are both sitting at +110, and Bovada is at +110. That's a three-cent gap on a dog, and over a full season those cents add up. Take the plus money. Take the Cubs.