Cincinnati Reds +105 at Pittsburgh Pirates. The best team in the division is the dog.

The God of Odds likes the Cincinnati Reds moneyline at +105 and BetUS is the place to hammer it.

The Reds have the best record in the NL Central at 20-12. That's not a fluke. They're 10-4 on the road, which is the best away mark in the division. The Pirates are 9-9 at home and losers of 4 of their last 5. The sharp money agrees: the moneyline has moved from -122 to -115, all on Cincinnati.

Yes, the Pirates have won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head. But those games were in March and April. This is May, and the Reds are still rolling. They went 5-5 in their last 10, but that includes wins in 3 of their last 5. The Pirates went 3-7 in their last 10 and their bullpen is banged up with Chris Devenski and Oddanier Mosqueda out. The Reds have their own injuries, but the line movement tells you where the value is.

At +105, you're getting plus money on the better team. That's the definition of value. BetUS has the best price at +105, while other books like Bovada are stingy at +102. Take the extra juice. The Reds are the play.

Confidence: 3 out of 5. Baseball is high variance, but this is a solid spot to fade a struggling favorite and grab the division leader as a dog.