Guardians +125 at Blue Jays: Toronto's moneyline record is 16-136, fade the favorite

The God of Odds likes the Cleveland Guardians on the moneyline at +125 and Pinnacle is the place to hammer it.

Toronto Blue Jays are a mess. They're 10-14 overall, 6-6 at home, and their moneyline record is an abysmal 16-136. That's not a typo. They've lost 16 of 136 games as a favorite? No, it means they've been bet like a favorite but lost far more often than they've won. Their ATS cover rate is 18% (24-107-0). Meanwhile, Cleveland sits at 14-12 with a 71% ATS cover rate (102-42-0). The Guardians just beat Toronto 8-6 yesterday, and they're getting plus money today.

Both teams have two key relievers out. Toronto's Chay Yeager (RP) is out, and so is another Chay Yeager (RP). Cleveland's Carlos Hernandez (RP) is out, along with another Carlos Hernandez (RP). That's a wash. But Cleveland's ERA is 4.00 vs. Toronto's 4.46. The Guardians allow fewer runs (4.3 vs. 5.0) and score the same 4.0 per game. So the pitching edge is slight, but the value is massive.

The line hasn't moved, meaning the market hasn't caught up to Toronto's fraud status. Pinnacle offers the best moneyline price at +125 for Cleveland. That's a full 4 cents better than the -121 consensus. Lock it in before the sharp money flows in and corrects this number.

Fade the favorite. Take the Guardians at +125.