Detroit Tigers -118 vs Reds: Back the better offense and healthier roster

The God of Odds likes the Detroit Tigers moneyline at -118, and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

Detroit comes in at 13-12, a winning record that looks even better when you stack it against Cincinnati's 16-9 mark. The Tigers are scoring 4.4 runs per game while allowing 3.9, giving them a positive run differential. Their opponent, the Reds, allow 4.0 runs per game themselves. The advanced ERA numbers are nearly identical: Detroit at 3.63, Cincinnati at 3.58. So why are the Tigers underdogs here? They shouldn't be.

Recent form favors Detroit too. They're 4-5 in their last 5 but with a pattern of wins that includes a 4-game streak. Cincinnati is 6-6 at home, not exactly dominant. The Reds are also banged up: four players are out or doubtful, including two pitchers in Alex Young and Carson Spiers. Detroit has three injuries but none to their core lineup.

The biggest edge is at the plate. Detroit's OPS is .712 compared to Cincinnati's .642. That's a 70-point gap that matters in a game where runs are at a premium. The Tigers have the better offense and the pitching is a wash. The line hasn't moved, which tells me the books aren't getting sharp action on Cincinnati. That's your signal.

LowVig offers Detroit at -118, the best price available. BetOnline and GTbets both have -118 as well, but LowVig is the sharp book. Lock in the Tigers and let the market catch up.