Blue Jays -110 vs Mets: Toronto's home field and Mets' injuries tip the scale

The God of Odds likes the Toronto Blue Jays on the moneyline at -110, and LowVig is the place to hammer it.

Let's cut through the noise. The Mets are 36-50 on the year and a dreadful 17-26 on the road. They've lost 4 of their last 5 games, and their bullpen is in shambles with Robert Stock (listed twice, so that's a double whammy) and Mike Tauchman and Grae Kessinger all out. That's four key pieces missing. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are only missing one reliever in Chay Yeager. That depth advantage matters in a tight game.

Toronto hasn't been great either at 40-46, but they've taken 3 of the last 5 matchups against New York. Their home record sits at 23-25, which isn't pretty, but the Mets are even worse away from Citi Field. Both teams average 4.0 runs per game, but Toronto allows 4.4 while the Mets allow 4.5. Slight edge to the home side.

Now look at the line movement. The moneyline opened at -104 and has moved to -110. That's sharp money landing on Toronto. The public might be split, but the smart money is laying the chalk with the Blue Jays. And at LowVig, you get the best price at -110. BetOnline and BetUS also offer -110, but LowVig is the top dog here.

This is a moderate confidence play at 3 out of 5. The Mets are a mess right now, and Toronto has the head-to-head history and the healthier roster. Back the Blue Jays at home on Wednesday night.