LOSS - Seattle Mariners moneyline
Final: Seattle Mariners 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 11
-1.00u
Profit
❌ Mariners +101 Gets Blown Out 11-1: Trust the Line Movement
Godds Pick
Seattle Mariners ML
Moneyline · Best odds: +101 at LowVig.ag
The Mariners have a better ERA (3.59 vs 4.16) and just beat the Pirates 3-2 on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is missing three key arms in Oddanier Mosqueda, Ronny Simon, and Chris Devenski. At +101, this is value on the better team.
Bet at LowVig.ag →Community Pulse
Pick Missed
Final: Seattle Mariners 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 11 • Seattle Mariners moneyline ML
-1.00u
🔍 Why It Missed
The Mariners' pitching advantage evaporated as their starter imploded early, while Pittsburgh's bullpen stepped up despite injuries. The line drift to +101 indicated public money, not sharp action, and we failed to fade the public.
Post-Game Analysis
❌ LOSS. Seattle Mariners 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 11. The Mariners got absolutely shelled. The pitching gap we highlighted? It flipped. Seattle's 3.59 ERA meant nothing when their starter got rocked for 6 runs in 3 innings. Pittsburgh's 4.16 ERA looked like Cy Young material as they held Seattle to 1 run. The bullpen we thought was banged up? Mosqueda didn't pitch, but the Pirates' pen threw 5 scoreless innings. The plus money was tasty, but the line movement should have been a red flag. Seattle opened at -105 and drifted to +101. That's public money forcing value on a team that didn't have it. Sharp books like LowVig.ag offered the best number, but the sharp move was actually on Pittsburgh. We missed the signal.
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All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes the Seattle Mariners on the moneyline at +101 and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it.
Let's get this straight: The Pirates are favored at home but they're the ones with the problems. Pittsburgh's ERA sits at 4.16 compared to Seattle's 3.59. That's a half-run gap in a sport where every tenth matters. The Mariners just showed up at PNC Park on Tuesday and took Game 1, 3-2. Now they get the same Pirates team at plus money.
Pittsburgh is banged up. Oddanier Mosqueda (RP), Ronny Simon (2B), and Chris Devenski (RP) are all out or doubtful. That's three bodies the Bucs have to replace against a Seattle squad that's 41-39 overall and playing .500 ball on the road. The Mariners' last 10 games show wins in two of their last three, including that head-to-head win.
Seattle's pitching is the story here. They allow just 3.9 runs per game. Pittsburgh gives up 4.8. The Pirates' moneyline record is a weird 1262-519 but that's noise. What matters is tonight: a team with a worse ERA, missing three players, and facing a Mariners club that already beat them 24 hours ago.
The line movement tells you nothing because the spread hasn't budged. But the total jumped from 7 to 8, which suggests the books expect runs. That favors Seattle's offense, which just put up three on Pittsburgh's staff.
Shop around: LowVig.ag has the best price on the Mariners at +101. BetOnline and BetUS also offer +101, but LowVig is the sharp book. At BetUS you're getting -111 on the Pirates if you want to fade. Don't. Take the better team at a dog price.
Seattle at +101 is a fade of a flawed favorite. The Mariners have the edge on the mound, the recent win, and the healthier roster. Hammer it.
LowVig.ag
Odds Comparison
Odds as of Jun 24, 1:07 PM ET — lines may have moved
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