Red Sox +104 at home vs Blue Jays: The market is fading a 24-12 home team

The God of Odds likes Boston Red Sox moneyline at +104, and BetOnline.ag is the place to hammer it.

Look at the numbers. Boston is 38-32 overall with a 24-12 home record. That's a .667 win percentage at Fenway. Toronto is 34-38 overall and a brutal 13-20 on the road. The Blue Jays have lost 2 of their last 3 and are 4-6 in their last 10. Boston is 6-1-3 in their last 10, including wins in 5 of their last 7. The Red Sox score 4.8 runs per game while allowing 4.6. Toronto scores 4.1 and allows 4.4. Every split favors the home team.

Yet the books have Boston as the underdog. That's a gift. The line hasn't moved, meaning sharp money hasn't hammered the favorite. Boston is missing Brendan Rodgers at 2B, but that's not enough to flip this line. The Red Sox cover the spread at 52% and have a moneyline record of 1401-1298. They win outright more often than not.

BetOnline.ag has the best price on Boston at +104. Bovada and MyBookie are worse at +102. Take the extra two cents. The Blue Jays are 302-1082 on the moneyline and cover only 41% ATS. Fading them on the road against a superior home team is the sharp play.

This is a 3/5 confidence play. Not a slam dunk, but a solid value spot. Boston at plus money at home with better form and record? I'll take that every time.