WINNER - San Jose Earthquakes moneyline
Final: Portland Timbers 1, San Jose Earthquakes 3
+0.95u
Profit
✅ San Jose Moneyline at -105: The Better Team Won, Just Like We Said
Godds Pick
San Jose Earthquakes ML
Moneyline · Best odds: +100 at MyBookie.ag
San Jose is 12-8 with a 1.8 goals per game average and a 1.5 goals allowed mark, and their last 10 reads W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W. Portland sits at 9-12 and has dropped three of its last four, so backing the home side at even money is the clear play.
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Pick Cashed
Final: Portland Timbers 1, San Jose Earthquakes 3 • San Jose Earthquakes moneyline ML
+0.95u
⚡ Why It Hit
San Jose was the clearly better team at 12-8 versus Portland's 9-12, and the market priced it as a coin flip. Their form (eight wins in ten, 1.8 goals scored per game) translated directly into a 3-1 result. The pick hit on team quality, not on line value, since the price never moved off -105.
Post-Game Analysis
✅ WIN: Portland Timbers 1, San Jose Earthquakes 3. San Jose moneyline at -105 cashes.
The pre-game read was simple. A 12-8 team hosting a 9-12 team at even money is a gift, and the Earthquakes proved it with a 3-1 result. San Jose's form held: eight wins in their last ten, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.5. Portland had no answer for that pressure, and the scoreline reflects the gap the market refused to price.
Here's the honest part. The line didn't move. We took -105 and it closed -105. That's not beating the close, and it's not losing to it either. The market never wavered, which means we weren't ahead of the number, we were right on it. The win came from reading the teams correctly, not from catching a soft price before it corrected. That's still a good bet, but it's a different kind of good than a steam move.
MyBookie.ag gave us the best available number at -105, and that's the only reason this was worth firing at 4/5 confidence.
The takeaway: when a superior team sits at even money against an inferior host, take the better side and don't overthink the price. Form beats home-field noise.
The God of Odds delivers again.
All Picks & Record →Pre-Game Analysis
The God of Odds likes San Jose Earthquakes on the moneyline at +100, and MyBookie.ag is the place to hammer it. This is a 12-8 team hosting a 9-12 team, and the market is handing you even money to take the better side. That's not a coin flip. That's a gift.
Look at the form. San Jose's last 10 reads W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W. That's eight wins in ten, with the only blemish a single loss in the middle of an otherwise dominant stretch. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game and allowing just 1.5, a plus differential that holds up over a full season. The Earthquakes win outright, and they do it consistently. Their moneyline record backs that up.
Portland is the opposite story. The Timbers are 9-12 on the year, and their last 10 is a mess: L-W-L-W-L-D-L-L-L-W. They've lost three of their last four and four of their last six. They score 1.8 per game but allow 1.8, a wash that leaves no margin for error on the road. Against a San Jose side that's been rolling, that leaky defense is the difference.
The number is the story here. Bovada, BetUS, and BetAnything all list San Jose at -105. BetOnline.ag and MyBookie.ag have the Earthquakes at +100. That's a five-cent gap on the same side, and it matters. At -105 you're risking $105 to win $100. At +100 you're risking $100 to win $100. Take the plus money every time it's available on a team you already believe in.
MyBookie.ag is the best of the bunch at +100. Same team, same game, better price. The 12-8 record, the 1.8 goals per game, the 1.5 allowed, and that 8-1-1 run over the last 10 all point one direction. San Jose wins this match, and you get paid even money to back them.

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Odds Comparison
Odds as of Sep 26, 7:31 PM ET — lines may have moved

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