San Jose Earthquakes

The San Jose Earthquakes enter the 2026 MLS season with a 10-6 record, translating to a solid 2.0 points per game. However, a deeper dive into the underlying metrics reveals a team that may be overperforming. The Earthquakes have recorded zero clean sheets, zero expected goals (xG), zero possession percentage, and zero shots on target per game. These zeros are glaring red flags that suggest the team's success is not built on sustainable underlying processes.

From a betting perspective, the Earthquakes' profile is a classic case of a team whose results outpace their performance. The 2.0 PPG is excellent, but with such poor advanced stats, it's likely that regression is coming. Bettors should be cautious about backing the Earthquakes on the moneyline or spread in upcoming matches, as the market may still be pricing them based on their record rather than their true quality.

In terms of totals, the Earthquakes' games have seen 0 overs and 0 unders, but with a points against per game (PAPG) of 1.42, their defense is relatively solid. However, with no offensive output in terms of expected goals, their games are likely to be low-scoring affairs. The lack of shots on target suggests they struggle to create quality chances, which should lead to unders in their matchups. Bettors should look to play the under in San Jose games, especially when they face teams with similar defensive solidity.

The Earthquakes' home and away records are both 0-0, providing no split advantage. Their ATS (against the spread) record is also 0-0-0, so there's no historical trend to lean on. This lack of data makes it even more important to rely on the advanced stats, which clearly point to a team that is not as good as their record suggests.

Injury-wise, there are no significant injuries reported, so the Earthquakes should have their full squad available. This is a positive but doesn't change the underlying concerns about their performance metrics.

From a sharp vs. public sentiment perspective, the public is likely to be drawn to the Earthquakes' strong record and might back them as favorites. However, sharp bettors will notice the advanced stats and may fade the Earthquakes or target overs against them. The key is to identify when the market overvalues San Jose based on their record.

Specific recommendations: For upcoming games, consider betting against the Earthquakes on the spread (they may be laying points and failing to cover) or on the moneyline if they are favorites. Additionally, playing the under in their games could be profitable, as their lack of offensive firepower and decent defense should keep scores low. However, if the total is set very low (e.g., 2.5 goals), the under might be too obvious, so look for totals of 3 or higher to have value.

In conclusion, the San Jose Earthquakes are a team to approach with caution. Their 10-6 record is impressive, but the underlying stats scream regression. Bettors should fade them until they show improvement in xG, possession, and shots on target. The best betting angle is to target unders in their games and to fade them as favorites. Keep an eye on their upcoming fixtures and adjust based on the opponent's style. If they face a high-pressing team, their lack of possession could be exploited, leading to losses and potential overs against them. But as of now, the data supports a bearish outlook on San Jose's betting value.