Thunder -2.5 against the Cavs, and the market stays put.

The Thunder host the Cavaliers as -2.5 favorites, with the moneyline at -138 and a market probability of 56% for Oklahoma City after the margin is removed. Cleveland sits at 44%. The total is 228.5. This is a priced-to-the-inch game, and the market hasn't budged since opening.

Oklahoma City's case starts at home, where the Thunder are 3-0, and with a defense allowing 107.7 points per game. They've won four of their last five and hold a 3-1 moneyline record. The head-to-head is lopsided: OKC swept the last two meetings, including a 136-104 blowout in January and a 121-113 win in February. The concern is real, though. The injury report lists Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber as out or doubtful. That's a lot of rotation missing.

Cleveland's argument is offense. The Cavaliers score 119.7 points per game and shoot 46.9% from the field, both better than OKC's numbers. They're 4-0 on the moneyline and have won eight of their last ten. The catch: they allow 116.1 points per game and are just 1-2 on the road. The spread hasn't moved off -2.5, and the total is stuck at 228.5.

Best prices: Oklahoma City -137 on the moneyline at MyBookie.ag, Cleveland +120 at Bovada. Both spread sides are -110 at Bovada, and the total is -110 either way at Bovada. No line movement to chase, no steam to follow.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand you. If you have a read, take the best number on your side and let it ride.