Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Pistons -5 in Miami, and the market's number hasn't budged.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Detroit Pistons -5 (moneyline -195)
- Market probability (margin removed): Miami Heat 36%, Detroit Pistons 64%
- Line since opening: Detroit Pistons -5 → -5 · Total 229 → 229
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Miami Heat +170 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Detroit Pistons -190 at EverygameBet at Everygame →
Spread
- Miami Heat +5 (-108) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Detroit Pistons -5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 229
- Over -105 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Detroit rolls into Miami at 8-3, and the market makes the Pistons a -5 favorite with a -195 moneyline. Strip out the margin and the implied split is Detroit 64%, Miami 36%. That's the price of a road favorite against a team that's won three straight. The question for bettors: does the record or the venue tell the truer story?
Detroit's case is built on the road. The Pistons are 5-1 away from home, riding a two-game win streak, and scoring 115.5 while allowing just 107.8. They cover at 63% on the season (5-3 ATS) and cash moneyline tickets at 6-2. The one crack: Jalen Duren (C) and Isaiah Joe (G) are both out or doubtful, which thins the frontcourt and the backcourt rotation on the second night of a trip.
Miami's case is the number itself. The Heat are 6-6 and just 2-3 at home, but they've won three in a row and put up 117.2 a night. The problem is the other end: they allow 120.1, and they're 0-2 ATS with an 0-2 over/under mark. Klay Thompson (G) and Pelle Larsson (G) are out or doubtful, so the guard depth is stretched against a Detroit team that wants to run. Miami's head-to-head edge is real, 2-1 in the last three, but two of those games were decided by a combined seven points.
The market hasn't moved. The spread opened at Detroit -5 and sits there now; the total opened at 229 and hasn't moved either. Best prices: Miami +170 at BetAnything, Detroit -190 at Everygame. On the spread, Miami +5 (-108) at BetOnline.ag and Detroit -5 (-110) at BetAnything. Total: Over 229 (-105) at Bovada, Under 229 (-110) at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side clears the 70% threshold in the model. Shop the best number for your read and let the market argue with itself.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 14, 11:29 AM ET. Lines may have moved.
Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat: FAQ
Who is favored in Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat?+
Detroit Pistons: -5 on the spread and -195 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 64%.
What are the best odds for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat?+
When this analysis was written: Miami Heat +170 at BetAnything and Detroit Pistons -190 at Everygame on the moneyline; Miami Heat +5 (-108) at BetOnline.ag and Detroit Pistons -5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -105 at Bovada and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 229. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Detroit Pistons -5 and was -5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 229 and was 229.
Does GODDS have a pick for Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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