Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Warriors get 7 in Denver. The market says 70% Nuggets.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Denver Nuggets -7 (moneyline -265)
- Market probability (margin removed): Denver Nuggets 70%, Golden State Warriors 30%
- Line since opening: Denver Nuggets -7 → -7 · Total 236 → 236.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Denver Nuggets -265 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Golden State Warriors +230 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Spread
- Denver Nuggets -7 (-110) at MyBookie.agBet at MyBookie.ag →
- Golden State Warriors +7 (-105) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 236.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -107 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
The Denver Nuggets are 1-1 and hosting a winless Golden State team on Monday, and the market has made its position clear. Denver sits at -7 with a -265 moneyline, and with the margin removed the implied probability reads 70% Nuggets, 30% Warriors. That's a big number for a team that hasn't covered a spread yet this season. The total opened at 236 and sits at 236.5, so the market nudged toward points.
The case for Denver starts with the venue and the opponent's health. The Nuggets are 1-0 at home and on a one-game win streak. Golden State is 0-3 and has lost eight straight going back to last season, allowing 123.0 points per game while scoring 111.7. Denver's own defense gives up 115.5, and the Nuggets are 0-2 against the spread, so backing them means paying for a team that hasn't delivered a cover. Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are out or doubtful.
The case for Golden State is the head-to-head and the number. These teams split the last four meetings 2-2, and the Warriors won the most recent one 137-131 on Oct. 23. They've covered nothing this season either, 0-2 ATS, and they're missing Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler III. But +7 with a +230 moneyline is a price that pays for the risk, and the Warriors' 111.7 scoring average says they can stay in a game the market expects them to lose by double digits.
The spread hasn't moved off -7 since opening. The best price on Denver is -7 (-110) at MyBookie.ag; the best on Golden State is +7 (-105) at BetAnything. On the moneyline, Denver is -265 at BetAnything and Golden State is +230 at Bovada. The total is 236.5, with the over at -110 at BetAnything and the under at -107 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 26, 4:22 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets: FAQ
Who is favored in Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets?+
Denver Nuggets: -7 on the spread and -265 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 70%.
What are the best odds for Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets?+
When this analysis was written: Denver Nuggets -265 at BetAnything and Golden State Warriors +230 at Bovada on the moneyline; Denver Nuggets -7 (-110) at MyBookie.ag and Golden State Warriors +7 (-105) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -107 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 236.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Denver Nuggets -7 and was -7 when this analysis was written; the total opened 236 and was 236.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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