Pacers get 6.5 in Memphis. The market sees a 69% Grizzlies side.

Memphis hosts Indiana on Wednesday with the Grizzlies priced as -6.5 favorites and -260 on the moneyline. The market gives Memphis a 69% chance with the margin removed, and that number sits right under the threshold where a side becomes a call. The Pacers are 2-6 and riding a five-game losing streak, so the price makes sense on the surface. The question is whether the number has caught up to how thin Indiana actually is.

The case for Memphis starts with its record and its cover rate. The Grizzlies are 6-1 overall and 4-1 against the spread, a 80% cover rate. They score 123.0 points per game and allow 110.1, and their last ten games read W-W-W-W-W-W-L-L-W-W. They beat Indiana 128-103 on Oct. 25 and won the previous meeting 125-106. That's a 25-point average margin in two head-to-heads, and the market still only asks for 6.5.

The case for Indiana is the price and the road split. The Pacers are 2-2 away from home, and their +6.5 at -105 is the cheapest way to take the points. Their 50% ATS record is ordinary, but they've covered half their games while losing six of eight. The injury report is the real story: Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard and Tyrese Haliburton are all out or doubtful. Indiana scores 111.8 and allows 115.6, and that roster is why the number sits where it does.

The line hasn't moved. Memphis opened -6.5 and stays -6.5; the total opened 230.5 and stays 230.5. Best prices: Memphis -260 at Bovada, Indiana +215 at Bovada. On the spread, Memphis -6.5 (-110) at BetOnline.ag and Indiana +6.5 (-105) at Bovada. Total 230.5: over -110 and under -110, both at Bovada.

GODDS has no pick here because no side reaches 70% in its model. Whatever your read, the best number is waiting at the book listed above.