Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA
Warriors 138, Pelicans 87: the favorite covers at -11
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Golden State Warriors -11.5 (moneyline -575)
- Market probability (margin removed): Golden State Warriors 82%, New Orleans Pelicans 18%
- Line since opening: Golden State Warriors -9 → -11.5 · Total 232 → 229.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Golden State Warriors -549 at MyBookie.agBet at MyBookie.ag →
- New Orleans Pelicans +435 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Golden State Warriors -11.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- New Orleans Pelicans +11.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 229.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Final: New Orleans Pelicans 87, Golden State Warriors 138
Against the closing line: Golden State Warriors won and covered -11 · Total 225, under 228
Game Recap
Golden State Warriors 138, New Orleans Pelicans 87.
The Warriors didn't just win, they obliterated the number. The market closed at **-11** after opening **-9**, and Golden State blew past that by halftime. The **7-game win streak** and **5-1** home record were no fluke; the Warriors imposed their will from the opening tip. New Orleans had no answer for a team scoring **118.6** a night, and the defense that allows **113.6** looked elite against a Pelicans squad that never found rhythm. This was a statement.
Against the numbers: the favorite won outright and covered **-11** with ease. The total of **225** stayed under the **228** closing line, but the spread was never in doubt.
Pre-Game Analysis
Golden State hosts New Orleans Monday night at a price that's already moved twice. The Warriors are -11.5 after opening -9, and the moneyline sits at -575, an implied 82% with the margin removed. That's the market's read. Your job is to decide if it's right.
The case for Golden State starts with a 7-game win streak and a 5-1 home record. The Warriors score 118.6 a night and allow 113.6, and they've taken 2 of the last 3 meetings with New Orleans, including a 124-106 win on Nov 16. The concern is real: Will Richard, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler III are all out or doubtful, and the Warriors are just 2-2-1 against the spread.
The case for New Orleans is that this number may have overshot. The Pelicans cover at 63% (5-3-0 ATS), score 120.5 a game and shoot 48.6% from the field. They're 1-3 on the road and have lost two straight, but they beat Golden State 113-109 in February. Yves Missi is out or doubtful, which thins the middle.
The total opened 232 and sits at 229.5, money on the under. Best prices: Warriors moneyline -549 at MyBookie.ag, Pelicans +435 at BetAnything. Spread: Warriors -11.5 (-105) at Bovada, Pelicans +11.5 (-110) at BetAnything. Total 229.5: over -110 at BetAnything, under -110 at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best numbers are above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Nov 9, 6:45 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors: FAQ
Who is favored in New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?+
Golden State Warriors: -11.5 on the spread and -575 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 82%.
What are the best odds for New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?+
When this analysis was written: Golden State Warriors -549 at MyBookie.ag and New Orleans Pelicans +435 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Golden State Warriors -11.5 (-105) at Bovada and New Orleans Pelicans +11.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 229.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Golden State Warriors -9 and was -11.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 232 and was 229.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
New Orleans Pelicans 87, Golden State Warriors 138.
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