Rockets -17 vs Jazz: The Market Says 90%, the Data Says It's Not That Simple.

GODDS Analysis

No pick

No GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →

The market

Favorite: Houston Rockets -17 (moneyline -1800)
Market probability (margin removed): Houston Rockets 90%, Utah Jazz 10%
Line since opening: Houston Rockets -17 → -17 · Total 219 → 219

Best prices when this analysis was written

Moneyline

Houston Rockets -1800 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Utah Jazz +850 at BovadaBet at Bovada →

Spread

Houston Rockets -17 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Utah Jazz +17 (-110) at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →

Total 219

Over -115 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Under -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →

The Houston Rockets are 9-3 and the Utah Jazz are 1-11. The market has this priced as a mismatch: Houston -17, moneyline -1800, with a margin-removed probability of 90% for the Rockets and 10% for the Jazz. That's the number bettors are working with on Friday night.

The case for Houston starts with its record and its defense. The Rockets are 9-3, 6-1 at home, and have won two straight. They're scoring 115.4 points per game and allowing 106.5. Their ATS record is 7-3-0, a 70% cover rate, and they're 7-3 on the moneyline. The concern is inside: Clint Capela and Steven Adams are both listed OUT/DOUBTFUL at center, which changes Houston's interior rotation.

The case for Utah isn't about its record, which is 1-11, 0-5 on the road, and riding a 10-game losing streak. It's about the number. The Jazz are 2-6-0 ATS, but they're 1-7 on the moneyline and 1-7 on the over/under, which means the market has consistently priced them as worse than they've performed against the spread. Utah is also missing Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trey Alexander, so the roster is thin. The Jazz are scoring 106.6 and allowing 118.1.

The line hasn't moved: Houston -17 at open, Houston -17 now. The total is 219 at open and 219 now. Best prices: Houston moneyline -1800 at Bovada, Utah +850 at Bovada. Houston -17 (-105) at Bovada, Utah +17 (-110) at BetOnline.ag. Over 219 -115 and Under 219 -105, both at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side clears 70% in the model, so there's no call to make. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.

BetAnything

35% Sports Free Play up to $105

🔥 Join BetAnything →

Odds Comparison

Sportsbook	Jazz	Rockets	Spread	O/U
BetOnline.ag	-	-
Bovada
BetUS	-	-
Pinnacle (sharp line) fair	+1009	-1009	-17(+104)	218.5(O-101)

Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.

Odds as of Nov 12, 8:47 PM ET. Lines may have moved.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets: FAQ

Who is favored in Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?+

Houston Rockets: -17 on the spread and -1800 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 90%.

What are the best odds for Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?+

When this analysis was written: Houston Rockets -1800 at Bovada and Utah Jazz +850 at Bovada on the moneyline; Houston Rockets -17 (-105) at Bovada and Utah Jazz +17 (-110) at BetOnline.ag on the spread; Over -115 at BetOnline.ag and Under -105 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 219. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.

How has the line moved?+

The spread opened Houston Rockets -17 and was -17 when this analysis was written; the total opened 219 and was 219.

Does GODDS have a pick for Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?+

No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.

BetAnything

35% Sports Free Play up to $105

🔥 Join BetAnything →

The Oracle·Growing jackpot jackpot · Week 10 open

Enter Now →