Spurs -16 against the Jazz, and the market is nearly all in.

San Antonio hosts Utah on Monday as a -16 favorite, with the moneyline sitting at -1150. The market gives the Spurs an 88% chance to win, margin removed. That's the price of admission. The question is whether the number is right, not whether the Spurs are better. The Jazz are 1-5 and have lost four straight, but the market has already baked that in.

The case for San Antonio is a four-game win streak and a 117.3 points per game offense against 110.2 allowed. The Spurs are 4-1 on the moneyline and 2-2 at home. They've won two of the last three meetings with Utah, including a 126-109 win in January. The case against the spread is a 2-3 ATS record, a 40% cover rate. This team wins games, but it hasn't been covering the big number. Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance are out or doubtful, which thins the frontcourt.

The case for Utah is that it's getting 16 points. The Jazz are 2-2 ATS despite the 1-5 record, and they're 50% against the number. They score 108.7 per game and allow 118.8, which is why the market is so low on them. But they've covered half their games. Jaren Jackson Jr., Trey Alexander and Jusuf Nurkic are out or doubtful, which is a real problem against a team scoring 117.3.

The line opened at -15 and moved to -16, toward San Antonio. The total dropped from 231 to 228.5, toward the under. Best prices: Spurs moneyline -1100 at Bovada, Jazz +732 at BetOnline.ag. Spurs spread -16 (-110) at BetAnything, Jazz +16 (-105) at BetOnline.ag. Total 228.5, over -110 at BetAnything, under -110 at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is there for you.