Thunder -12.5 against the Wizards, and the line keeps climbing.

The Thunder are 7-2 and perfect at home, and the market prices them as a -649 moneyline favorite with a -12.5 spread. That's an 83% win probability with the margin removed. Washington comes in at 4-5 and on a two-game losing streak, so the number tells you exactly how the market sees the gap.

Oklahoma City's case is the record and the venue. 4-0 at home, a three-game win streak, 112.0 points per game and 107.4 allowed. They're 5-1 on the moneyline and 4-2-0 against the spread, a 67% cover rate. They've beaten Washington twice in the last two meetings, including 127-108 on Oct 30. The injury report is crowded, with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and three others out or doubtful, but the market hasn't blinked.

Washington's case is the number itself. The Wizards score 111.4 a night, and their 47.9% field goal rate is better than Oklahoma City's 45.3%. They're 2-3 on the road, and the Thunder are giving 12.5 with a roster missing key pieces. The Wizards are 2-4-0 against the spread, a 33% cover rate, so the market has punished them. But a double-digit number with that many Thunder absences is the argument on the other side.

The spread opened at -12 and moved to -12.5, toward Oklahoma City. The moneyline went from -600 to -649, sharp money on the favorite. The total moved from 222.5 to 223.5, toward the over. Best prices: Thunder -603 at BetUS, Wizards +476 at BetOnline.ag. Spread: Thunder -12.5 (-110) at BetAnything, Wizards +12.5 (-105) at BetUS. Total 223.5: Over -110 at BetAnything, Under -108 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board.