Bills -7 vs Patriots. The market moved, now you catch up.

The God of Odds likes the Buffalo Bills -7 at even money, and Bovada is the place to hammer it. This number opened at -5.5 and it's sitting at -7 for a reason. The moneyline jumped from -250 to -327, which tells you exactly where the sharp money landed. Buffalo, and it landed early.

Look at what the Bills are doing. They're 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread, and a perfect 2-0 at home. They're putting up 33.7 points per game while giving up 26.0. That's a team scoring on command, and the last six results read W-W-W-W-W-W. When a team covers every single week, the market eventually stops giving you a discount. That's what happened here, and -7 is still the right side.

New England is the opposite story. The Patriots are 1-2, 0-2 on the road, and averaging just 12.0 points per game. They've scored 12 a game and now they walk into a building where Buffalo hasn't lost all year. The injury report makes it worse: Christian Barmore, Christian Gonzalez, A.J. Brown, and Greg Van Roten are all out or doubtful. That's a defensive tackle, a top corner, a receiver, and a starting guard. Six names on the OUT/DOUBTFUL list and seven more questionable. You don't patch that in a week.

Buffalo isn't clean either. T.J. Sanders and Jordan Hancock are out, and Ray Davis, Christian Benford, and Sam Franklin Jr. are questionable. Two key injuries against New England's six. The line already absorbed that news and kept climbing, which is the tell. The market saw the Buffalo injuries and still pushed this to -7.

Here's the edge. Bovada is dealing Bills -7 at even money, the only book on the board not charging you juice. BetUS, BetOnline, MyBookie, BetAnything, and Everygame all want -105. Take the free half-percent and lay the touchdown with Buffalo. The number moved for a reason. Move with it.