49ers 20, Falcons 29: the favorite falls outright

The 49ers walk into Atlanta 6-0 and the market still won't give them the full opening number. San Francisco is a -2.5 favorite at most books, a moneyline of -146, and the margin-removed market probability reads 57% San Francisco, 43% Atlanta. That's a six-game win streak priced as a coin flip with a field goal attached. Bettors get a game where the record and the number disagree.

The case for San Francisco is the record and the scoring gap. The 49ers are 6-0 straight up and 2-0 on the road, putting up 29.5 points per game while allowing 18.3. They've covered in 4 of 6 games and won the moneyline in every one. That's a team that hasn't lost a game, let alone a road spot.

The case for Atlanta is the venue and the number. The Falcons are 2-4 and 0-3 at home, but they've scored 23.7 points per game and they're getting a short line at home against a team missing Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel Sr., Christian Kirk and Mike Evans. The injury report is long on both sides, and Atlanta's defense gets a banged-up offense to defend.

The line tells the story. The spread opened 49ers -4.5 and sits at -2.5. The total climbed from 47.5 to 49.5. The Atlanta moneyline moved from +178 to +126, sharp money on the home side. Best prices: Atlanta +130 on the moneyline at BetAnything, San Francisco -144 at MyBookie.ag. Spread: Atlanta +2.5 (+100) at BetAnything, San Francisco -2.5 (-117) at BetOnline.ag. Total 49.5: Over -110 and Under -110, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. Neither side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is listed above.