Celtics -14.5 vs Bulls, and the market isn't blinking.

Boston is 3-1 and 3-0 at home, and the market has this one priced as a mismatch: Celtics -14.5, moneyline -1067, with a market probability of Boston 87 percent and Chicago 13 percent. The number has sat at -14.5 since opening while books moved toward Boston, so the question isn't who's favored. It's whether the gap between these teams is really 14 and a half points.

Boston's case is straightforward. The Celtics are on a 3-game win streak, scoring 119.8 a night while allowing 111.8, and they've been perfect at home. They've hit the over in all 3 of their O/U decisions, and the head-to-head favors them too: 2 wins in the last 3 meetings, including a 124-105 blowout on Feb 11 and a 115-101 win on Jan 5. The ATS record is the soft spot at 1-2, a 33 percent cover rate, so laying 14.5 hasn't been automatic even when they win.

Chicago's case is thinner but real. The Bulls are 1-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak, allowing 130.2 points per game, and they're 0-4 on the moneyline. Their ATS mark is 1-3, a 25 percent cover rate, which means the number has beaten them more often than they've beaten it. The one argument for the road side: they won 114-111 in Boston on Jan 24, so they've already shown they can hang inside this building. Patrick Williams and Nic Claxton are both out or doubtful, which cuts into the frontcourt depth.

The total opened at 233 and moved to 234.5, toward the over, and it's held there. Best prices: Boston -14.5 at -115 with BetOnline.ag, Chicago +14.5 at -105 with BetOnline.ag, and on the moneyline Boston -901 with MyBookie.ag against Chicago +725 with Bovada. On the total, the over at 234.5 is -105 with Bovada and the under is -110 with BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick here. No side clears 70 percent in the model, so this one is yours to call. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.