Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA
Grizzlies 111, Warriors 108: Golden State fails to cover as 4.5-point favorite
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Golden State Warriors -4.5 (moneyline -170)
- Market probability (margin removed): Golden State Warriors 61%, Memphis Grizzlies 39%
- Line since opening: Golden State Warriors -3.5 → -4.5 · Total 234.5 → 237.5
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Golden State Warriors -170 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Memphis Grizzlies +150 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 237.5
- Over -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Under -107 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
Final: Memphis Grizzlies 111, Golden State Warriors 108
Against the closing line: Golden State Warriors lost and did not cover -4.5 · Total 219, under 237
Game Recap
Memphis Grizzlies 111, Golden State Warriors 108. The Warriors closed as 4.5-point favorites at home, but the Grizzlies flipped the script with a 3-point win. Golden State's recent head-to-head dominance, including three straight wins, didn't hold up. The market had Golden State at -4.5 with a 61% implied chance, but Memphis delivered the outright upset. The total closed at 237, and the 219 combined points sailed under. The Warriors failed to cover, and the under cashed with room to spare. That's the kind of night that reminds you the game isn't played on paper.
Pre-Game Analysis
The Warriors opened -3.5 and sit at -4.5 against Memphis, with the market giving Golden State a 61% chance after the margin is removed. Both teams are 1-0 or 0-1, but the price says the books trust the home side, even with three rotation pieces listed out or doubtful.
Golden State's case starts with the head-to-head: the Warriors have won the last three meetings, including a 131-118 result in October and a 114-113 squeaker in February. The market has moved toward them on both the spread and the moneyline, from -165 to -170, and the total has climbed from 234.5 to 237.5. That's sharp money backing the favorite and the over, even after a 127-point defensive night in their opener.
Memphis counters with the better recent form: a 1-0 record, 123.0 points per game and just 103.0 allowed, plus a 47.3% team field goal rate against Golden State's 41.3%. The Grizzlies are getting +4.5 and +150 on the moneyline, and the market still gives them a 39% shot. If the Warriors' injury list (Porzingis, Moody, Butler III) turns into rotation minutes for Memphis, the underdog has a real path.
The number moved for a reason. Golden State went from -3.5 to -4.5, the total from 234.5 to 237.5, and the moneyline from -165 to -170. Best prices: Warriors -170 and Grizzlies +150 on the moneyline at BetAnything; both sides of -4.5 at -110 at BetAnything; the over at -110 at BetAnything and the under at -107 at BetOnline.ag.
GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so the call is yours. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 23, 2:57 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors: FAQ
Who is favored in Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors?+
Golden State Warriors: -4.5 on the spread and -170 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 61%.
What are the best odds for Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors?+
When this analysis was written: Golden State Warriors -170 at BetAnything and Memphis Grizzlies +150 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-110) at BetAnything and Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -110 at BetAnything and Under -107 at BetOnline.ag on the total of 237.5. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Golden State Warriors -3.5 and was -4.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 234.5 and was 237.5.
Does GODDS have a pick for Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Memphis Grizzlies 111, Golden State Warriors 108.
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