Warriors -4.5 vs Grizzlies, and the line keeps climbing.

The Warriors opened -3.5 and sit at -4.5 against Memphis, with the market giving Golden State a 61% chance after the margin is removed. Both teams are 1-0 or 0-1, but the price says the books trust the home side, even with three rotation pieces listed out or doubtful.

Golden State's case starts with the head-to-head: the Warriors have won the last three meetings, including a 131-118 result in October and a 114-113 squeaker in February. The market has moved toward them on both the spread and the moneyline, from -165 to -170, and the total has climbed from 234.5 to 237.5. That's sharp money backing the favorite and the over, even after a 127-point defensive night in their opener.

Memphis counters with the better recent form: a 1-0 record, 123.0 points per game and just 103.0 allowed, plus a 47.3% team field goal rate against Golden State's 41.3%. The Grizzlies are getting +4.5 and +150 on the moneyline, and the market still gives them a 39% shot. If the Warriors' injury list (Porzingis, Moody, Butler III) turns into rotation minutes for Memphis, the underdog has a real path.

The number moved for a reason. Golden State went from -3.5 to -4.5, the total from 234.5 to 237.5, and the moneyline from -165 to -170. Best prices: Warriors -170 and Grizzlies +150 on the moneyline at BetAnything; both sides of -4.5 at -110 at BetAnything; the over at -110 at BetAnything and the under at -107 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model, so the call is yours. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.