Grizzlies -3.5 at Kings, and the market's number is set.

Memphis walks into Sacramento as a -3.5 favorite with the moneyline at -155, and the market gives the Grizzlies a 59% chance with the margin removed. Sacramento sits at 41%. That's a two-possession spread on a team that's 2-0 against one that's 0-2. The number says the records matter. The price says the gap isn't as wide as the standings look.

Memphis has the cleaner case. The Grizzlies are 2-0, scoring 117.0 a game and allowing 105.5, with a road win already banked. They're 1-0 against the spread and shooting 46.9% from the field. They've also taken three of the last four meetings, including a 137-96 blowout in November. Zach Edey is out, but the form and the head-to-head both point one way.

Sacramento's argument is the schedule and the price. The Kings are 0-2 and have dropped six of seven, but they're 1-1 against the spread and the market has already started moving toward them. The moneyline went from +143 to +135, sharp money on the home side. Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud are all out or doubtful, which thins the rotation, but the Kings are getting points at home against a team that's still finding its legs.

The total opened at 235 and sits at 234.5, a small move toward the under. The spread hasn't budged from -3.5. Best prices: Sacramento +140 on the moneyline at Bovada, Memphis -155 at BetAnything. On the spread, both sides are -110 at BetAnything, with the Kings at +3.5 and the Grizzlies at -3.5. The total is -110 either way at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting at the books above.