Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Heat 110, Hornets 115: the favorite falls outright
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: Miami Heat -3 (moneyline -140)
- Market probability (margin removed): Charlotte Hornets 44%, Miami Heat 56%
- Line since opening: Miami Heat -3.5 → -3 · Total 229.5 → 229
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- Charlotte Hornets +125 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Miami Heat -140 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Spread
- Charlotte Hornets +3 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Miami Heat -3 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 229
- Over -108 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Final: Miami Heat 110, Charlotte Hornets 115
Against the closing line: Miami Heat lost and did not cover -4 · Total 225, under 227.5
Game Recap
Miami Heat 110, Charlotte Hornets 115. The Heat's defense couldn't hold up, allowing Charlotte to score 115 points and secure the outright win as a home underdog. Miami's early-season struggles continued, and the Hornets took advantage. Against the numbers, the Heat, favored by 4, lost outright and failed to cover. The total of 225 fell under the closing line of 227.5.
Pre-Game Analysis
Miami rolls into Charlotte at 0-2, and the market still makes the Heat a -3 favorite with a -140 moneyline. Remove the margin and it's 56% Miami, 44% Charlotte. That's a thin gap for a winless road team against a home dog, and it's exactly why this number is worth watching.
The case for Charlotte starts with Miami's defense. The Heat are giving up 129.5 points per game and shooting just 42.6% from the field while starting 0-2. The Hornets are 1-1 and have taken two of the last three meetings in this head-to-head, including a 127-126 result. Charlotte's own numbers aren't pretty at 95.5 points per game and 39.4% shooting, but the home side gets a Miami team that hasn't stopped anyone.
The case for Miami is simple: the market still sees the more talented roster, and the Heat are scoring 108.5 per game despite the slow start. Charlotte is 0-1 at home, 0-1 against the spread, and just dropped its last game. Miami's 0-3 ATS mark is ugly, but the price has already adjusted, with the spread moving from -3.5 to -3. The Heat don't need to be perfect to cover three against a Hornets team allowing 115.5 per game.
The number has moved toward Charlotte all week. The spread went from +3.5 to +3, the moneyline shortened from +125 to +120, and the total dropped from 229.5 to 229. Best prices: Charlotte +125 at Bovada, Miami -140 at BetAnything. On the spread, Charlotte +3 (-105) at Bovada, Miami -3 (-110) at BetAnything. Total: over 229 (-108) at BetOnline.ag, under 229 (-110) at BetAnything.
GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 24, 1:58 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets: FAQ
Who is favored in Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets?+
Miami Heat: -3 on the spread and -140 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 56%.
What are the best odds for Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets?+
When this analysis was written: Charlotte Hornets +125 at Bovada and Miami Heat -140 at BetAnything on the moneyline; Charlotte Hornets +3 (-105) at Bovada and Miami Heat -3 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -108 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at BetAnything on the total of 229. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened Miami Heat -3.5 and was -3 when this analysis was written; the total opened 229.5 and was 229.
Does GODDS have a pick for Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
What was the final score?+
Miami Heat 110, Charlotte Hornets 115.
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