Nuggets -11 vs Pelicans, and the Line Is Already Sliding

Denver opens its home slate as an 11-point favorite against New Orleans, and the market has already shown its hand. The spread moved from -11.5 to -11 before tip, and the moneyline sits at -490 on the Nuggets, +382 on the Pelicans. Strip out the margin and the market gives Denver an 80% chance to win. That's the number to beat, not the record.

The case for Denver starts with the opponent. The Pelicans are 0-2 and have lost seven straight dating back to last season, allowing 121.5 points per game while scoring 119.5. New Orleans shoots 46.6% from the field, but that defense has been a turnstile. The Nuggets are 0-1 and coming off a loss of their own, but they're home, and the market clearly expects a bounce. The concern: Denver is without Spencer Jones, Cameron Johnson, and Julian Strawther, and the Nuggets scored just 84 points in their opener on 37.8% shooting.

The case for New Orleans is simple: 11 points is a lot for a team that can score. The Pelicans put up 119.5 per game, and Denver's shorthanded rotation leaves the door open for a backdoor cover. New Orleans is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 on the moneyline, but the line move toward the Pelicans suggests some bettors see the same opening.

The total sits at 240, down from 240.5, with no significant movement. Best prices: Nuggets -11 (-110) at BetAnything, Pelicans +11 (-105) at BetOnline.ag. Moneyline: Denver -490 at Bovada, New Orleans +382 at BetUS. Total: Over -110 at BetAnything, Under -107 at BetOnline.ag.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for you.