Knicks -7 in Chicago, and the moneyline keeps sliding

The Knicks are 1-3 and still priced like a contender in Chicago. New York is -7 and -275 on the moneyline, a market that gives the Knicks a 70% chance with the margin removed. Both teams are 1-3. The market isn't treating them the same, and that gap is the whole conversation.

Chicago's case starts with scoring volume. The Bulls put up 110.8 points per game, more than New York's 104.0, and they've been the more productive offense by raw output. The problem is the other end: 129.5 allowed per game is the number that explains a 2-game losing streak, an 0-3 ATS record and an 0-3 moneyline record. Chicago hasn't covered a spread yet this season. Nic Claxton is out or doubtful at center, which doesn't help a defense already giving up 129.5. The Bulls did beat New York 135-125 in the most recent meeting, so the scoring upside is real.

New York's case is the defense and the trend. The Knicks allow 105.3 per game, 24.2 fewer than Chicago, and they're on a 1-game win streak with a 1-0 ATS and 1-0 moneyline record. New York has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. The market agrees with that side: the moneyline moved from +200 to +225 on Chicago, money landing on the Knicks.

The spread hasn't budged from New York -6.5 to -7, and the total dropped from 233.5 to 232.5, toward the under. Best prices: Chicago +226 on the moneyline at BetOnline.ag, New York -270 at Bovada. Both sides of the spread sit at -110, Chicago +7 and New York -7 at BetAnything. On the total, Over 232.5 is -105 at BetOnline.ag and Under 232.5 is -110 at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Take the best number for your read.