Thunder -5.5 in Dallas, and the market's number keeps shrinking.

Oklahoma City rolls into Dallas at 4-0, but the market isn't handing out free points. The Thunder are priced at -5.5 and -205 on the moneyline, with the market giving Dallas a 35% chance to win outright. That's the number bettors have to beat, not the 4-0 record.

The case for Oklahoma City is defense and a clean road profile. The Thunder are 4-0, 1-0 away, and they've won all three recent meetings with Dallas, including a 101-94 win on Oct. 27. They allow 100.8 points per game and sit 3-0 on the moneyline. The counterweight is real: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are all listed out or doubtful. That's a lot of rotation missing, and it's why the number has come down.

The case for Dallas is the situation. The Mavericks are 2-2, riding a one-game win streak, and they're getting 5.5 at home against a Thunder team that's missing bodies. Dallas scores 112.5 per game and shoots 49.57% from the field, and the line has moved their way since opening. They're also 0-1 at home, which is the part of the argument that needs fixing.

The number has moved toward Dallas across the board. The spread opened at Thunder -6 and sits at -5.5. The total dropped from 230 to 228. The Mavericks moneyline went from +183 to +175. Best prices: Dallas +177 at BetOnline.ag, Oklahoma City -200 at Bovada. On the spread, Dallas +5.5 (-105) at BetOnline.ag, Oklahoma City -5.5 (-110) at BetAnything. Total 228: over -110 and under -110, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, take the best number on the board.