Thunder -4 in Memphis, and the market's number is holding.

Oklahoma City walks into Memphis as a -4 favorite with a -175 moneyline, and the market gives the Thunder a 61% chance with the margin removed. Memphis sits at 39% and +150. Both teams are 6-2, so the records say toss-up while the price says the books see a gap. That's the tension bettors are working with on Friday night.

Memphis has the scoring case. The Grizzlies put up 120.5 points per game and allow 109.8, a plus-10.7 differential that's the best number on the board. They've covered in 4 of 6 games (67%) and their moneyline record is 4-2. The problem is timing: Memphis is on a 2-game losing streak after opening W-W-W-W-W-W, and Scotty Pippen Jr. is out or doubtful. The home record is 2-2, so the FedExForum advantage isn't showing up in the results yet.

Oklahoma City's case is the head-to-head and the defense. The Thunder have won all 3 recent meetings, including 117-116 in Memphis in January and 114-100 in November. They allow 108.8 points per game, slightly better than Memphis, and they're riding a 2-game win streak. The catch is availability: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are all out or doubtful. OKC covers at 60% (3-2 ATS) and is 4-1 on the moneyline, but that injury list is why the number hasn't climbed past -4.

The line hasn't moved: spread -4 to -4, total 226.5 to 226.5. For the moneyline, Bovada has both sides at the best price, Memphis +150 and OKC -175. Same book has the spread at +4 (-110) and -4 (-110). On the total, BetOnline.ag lists 226.5 with the over and under both at -110.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model, so there's no play to hand down. Whatever your read is, the best number is waiting at the books above.