Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Pelicans -6.5 against the Kings. Here's what the market sees.
GODDS Analysis
No pickNo GODDS pick on this game. We publish a pick only when our model gives a side 70% or more, and this one doesn't get there. See today's picks →
The market
- Favorite: New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 (moneyline -240)
- Market probability (margin removed): New Orleans Pelicans 68%, Sacramento Kings 32%
- Line since opening: New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 → -6.5 · Total 238 → 235
Best prices when this analysis was written
Moneyline
- New Orleans Pelicans -235 at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
- Sacramento Kings +203 at BetUSBet at BetUS →
Spread
- New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 (-105) at BovadaBet at Bovada →
- Sacramento Kings +6.5 (-110) at BetAnythingBet at BetAnything →
Total 235
- Over -105 at BetOnline.agBet at BetOnline.ag →
- Under -110 at BovadaBet at Bovada →
Both teams are 0-4. Both are on four-game losing streaks. The market still prices New Orleans as a -6.5 favorite at -240 on the moneyline, and the margin-removed probability sits at 68% Pelicans, 32% Kings. That gap is the story of the night.
Sacramento's case starts with pace and points allowed. The Kings give up 125.5 PPG and their games have gone over in 3 of 4 outings, which is why the total opened at 238. They also split the last two meetings with New Orleans, winning 117-113 on April 3 and losing 123-133 on March 5. If this turns into a track meet, Sacramento's 107.8 PPG can keep it close. The problem is bodies: Dylan Cardwell, Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray and Ben Simmons are all out or doubtful.
New Orleans has its own argument, and it's the one the market is buying. The Pelicans score 116.3 PPG, shoot 46.5% from the field, and have covered in 1 of 3 games. They're home, they're the healthier side with only Yves Missi out or doubtful, and the sharp money has moved the moneyline from -202 to -240. The counterweight is a defense allowing 122.0 PPG and an 0-3 moneyline record.
The number has moved toward New Orleans all week: spread -5.5 to -6.5, total 238 to 235. Best prices: Pelicans moneyline -235 at BetAnything, Kings +203 at BetUS. On the spread, Pelicans -6.5 (-105) at Bovada, Kings +6.5 (-110) at BetAnything. On the total, over 235 (-105) at BetOnline.ag, under 235 (-110) at Bovada.
GODDS has no pick here. No side clears 70% in the model. Whatever your read, the best number is on the board above.
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Odds Comparison
Pinnacle (sharp line): its price with its margin removed. Pinnacle does not accept US players. Shown as a reference. value: a book's price that pays more than Pinnacle's fair price.
Odds as of Oct 29, 6:41 PM ET. Lines may have moved.
Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans: FAQ
Who is favored in Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans?+
New Orleans Pelicans: -6.5 on the spread and -240 on the moneyline when this analysis was written. The books' prices, margin removed, give them 68%.
What are the best odds for Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans?+
When this analysis was written: New Orleans Pelicans -235 at BetAnything and Sacramento Kings +203 at BetUS on the moneyline; New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 (-105) at Bovada and Sacramento Kings +6.5 (-110) at BetAnything on the spread; Over -105 at BetOnline.ag and Under -110 at Bovada on the total of 235. GODDS compares lines across 8 offshore sportsbooks.
How has the line moved?+
The spread opened New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 and was -6.5 when this analysis was written; the total opened 238 and was 235.
Does GODDS have a pick for Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans?+
No. GODDS publishes a pick only when its model gives a side a 70% chance or more. This game doesn't clear that bar, so GODDS shows the odds and the analysis without a pick.
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